정량자료 기반의 한국형 자연재해 위험지표 모형
A Quantitative Data based Natural Disaster Risk Index Model in South Korea
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초록
본 연구에서는 공공기관에서 제공하고 있는 정량적 자료를 이용하여 자연재해로부터의 위험정도를평가할 수 있는 자연재해 위험지표 모형을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하고 있는 위험지표는 재해위험성, 지리적 취약성, 사회적 취약성 및 대응 및 복구능력 등 4대 영역을 대변할 수 있는 32개세부지표들로 구성된다. 공공부문 데이터베이스로부터 평가에 필요한 정량적 자료를 획득한 후, 225 개 기초자치단체에 대해 2001년부터 2014년까지의 위험지표를 평가하였다. 제안된 모형의 유효성을평가하기 위해, 본 연구에서 도출된 자연재해 위험지표 평가결과, 국민안전처에서 전문가 집단을활용하여 수행한 지역안전도 평가결과, 자연재해로 인한 실제 피해액을 비교⋅분석하였다. 분석 결과, 자연재해 위험지표 평가결과와 지역안전도 및 피해액이 유의미한 상관관계를 갖는 것을 알 수있었다. 본 연구에서 제안하고 있는 자연재해 위험지표 모형을 활용한다면, 보다 저렴한 비용으로신속하고 객관적인 자연재해 위험평가를 수행할 수 있을 것이다. 나아가, 방재관련 정책결정자는본 위험지표 모형을 한정된 방재예산의 효율적 분배를 위한 유용한 의사결정도구로써 활용할 수있을 것이다.
Abstract
We develop a natural disaster risk index (NDRI) for evaluating risks of natural disasters based on the analysis of quantitative data provided by public institutions. NDRI is measured by 32 sub-indexes representing 4 assessment areas: disaster risk, geographical vulnerability, social vulnerability, and response/recovery capability. Using the database, 225 primary local governments are evaluated for NDRI for the years 2001-2014. For verification of the effectiveness of the proposed model, we compare and analyze NDRI evaluation results, regional safety grades from Ministry of Public Safety and Security, and actual amounts of damages from the previous natural disasters. The NDRI evaluation results show a significant association with the regional safety grades as well as the actual amounts of damages. NDRI is a tool to evaluate risks of natural disasters objectively with less resources and time.
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