북한 권력엘리트의 김정은 친화성 지수 개발 -장성택 숙청 이후 현지지도 수행 인원의 변화를 중심으로

Abstract

This study aims to develop a quantitative index, which can be used to measure intimate relationship between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and North Korean power elites. This study suggests Kim Jong-un Affinity Index(KAI) on the basis of factor analysis on 202 North Korean elites who have appeared more than once in Kim Jong-un's field inspection (2012-2015). KAI indicates when between before and after the execution of Jang Sung-taek one North Korean power elite is likely to accompany Kim Jong-un. If it is taken into account that North Korean leader let his proteges to accompany field inspection, those who have a higher KAI can be assumed to have a close relation with Kim Jong-un. Major findings go as follows. First, results of factor analysis showed that North Korean power elite can be statistically significantly categorized into two groups: the first group who is likely to accompany field inspection before the execution of Jang and the second group who is likely to do so after the execution of Jang. Second, those who have been considered to have a close relationship with Jang had statistically significantly higher KAI, while those who have been considered to have a close relationship with Kim had statistically significantly lower KAI. This study then used KAI to analyze the characteristics of Kim Jong-un regime and found that Kim Jong-un regime is relatively stable for three reasons. First, the number of North Korean power elites who have relatively higher or lower KIA is small. Contrary to expectation from existing literature, this is to say that Jang Sung-taek did not has a large group of proteges. Second, there is little difference in the positions that North Korean power elites with relatively lower KAI　and North Korean power elites with relatively lower KAI assumed. Results indicates that the positions playing a critical role in decision-making process have not changed. Finally, comparing KAI　by North Korea's party and government organizations, the Party Central Military Commission and the State Affairs Commission had statistically significantly higher mean score of the KAI. Therefore, it is not difficult to conclude that North Korean power structure centering around the military is maintained or strengthened.