Covid-19 이후 비세그라드 4개국-한국 관계
Relations between Visegrad 4 and Korea post-Covid 19
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초록
본 논문은 우선 비세그라드 4개국에서 Covid-19 상황과 이에 대한 각국 정부와 중앙은행의 대응을 살펴보고, 인간의 생명과 건강을 위협하는 이 바이러스가 경제에는 더욱 더 치명적인 영향을 끼치고 있음을 파악한다. 동시에 Covid-19가 공급과 수요를 마비, 왜곡시켜 그동안 당연시 해왔던 경제의 작동 규칙을 바꾸어 버리는 ‘게임 체인저’가 될 수도 있다고 가정한다. 따라서 본 논문은 Covid-19 이후에 벌어질 상황에 대한 몇 가지 시나리오를 작성하고, 이를 근거로 한국-V4 관계를 전망한다. 또한 이제 한국은 기존의 대규모 투자에 이른 일시적인 수출 증가와 감소 그리고 다시 투자와 수출로 이어지는 정형화된 도식에서 벗어나 대안적 전략을 마련해야 할 시점이 되었다고 강조한다.
Abstract
Firstly, this paper looks at the situation of Covid-19 in V4 and responses of the governments and central banks in four countries against it, and identifies that the virus, which threatens human life and health, has an even more devastating effect on the economy. At the same time, it is assumed that Covid-19 could become a “game changer” that paralyzes and distorts regional and global supply chains, changing the rules of operation of the economy that have been taken for granted. Therefore, this paper draws up several scenarios for what will happen post-Covid 19 period, and predicts the relations between Korea and V4 based on them. In addition, this paper stresses that it is high time for Korea to deviate from the standardized scheme of temporarily increasing and decreasing exports after large-scale investments, and to deviate an alternative strategy for promoting exports to V4.
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