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코로나19가 EU의 주요 신흥시장에 미친 경제적 영향에 관한 분석

A Study on the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on the EU Major Emerging Markets

조양현
한국유럽학회 (The Korean Society Of Contemporary European Studies)|2022.08|유럽연구 (The Journal of Contemporary European Studies)|제40권 제3호|pp. 27-55|DOI 10.17052/jces.2022.40.3.27

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키워드

Economic Impact코로나위기COVID-19 CrisisEU 주요 신흥시장경제적 영향분석EU Major Emerging Markets (EUEM-4)
주제분류지역학

초록

2020년부터 코로나19의 확산으로 인한 사회경제적 봉쇄조치로 세계 경제는 글로벌 금융위기(2008~2009) 이후 최대 경제위기에 직면했으며, 특히 2022년 2월에 발발한 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁으로 지리적으로 인접한 EU 신흥시장에서는 지적학적 리스크가 증대된 상황이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 코로나위기의 EU 신흥시장에 미친 경제적 영향을 중점적으로 분석하기 위해 EU 주요 신흥시장의 거시경제현황을 살펴보고, 시사점을 도출하고자 한다. 주요 선행연구에서도 경제성장 및 국민소득, 소득불평등 및 실업, 투입-산출 네트워크 및 무역 등에 대한 코로나위기의 경제적 영향을 분석했다. 그러나 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 대외거래에 직접적으로 영향을 미칠 수 있는 성장, 물가, 무역 및 투자의 관점에서 EU 주요 신흥시장(경제발전 수준 및 내수시장 규모의 분류 기준)에 대해 집중적으로 분석했다. 코로나위기 이전(2018~2019)과 이후(2020~2021)의 EU 주요 신흥시장(EUEM-4: 폴란드·체코·루마니아·헝가리)의 거시경제현황을 분석한 결과, 코로나 확산으로 경제전반에 걸쳐 극심한 경기침체에 직면했으나, 소비자물가상승률은 코로나위기로 인한 생산 차질 및 에너지·원자재의 가격 급등 등으로 공급비용 상승에 따른 인플레이션 압박이 경제성장의 하방위험 요인으로 작용하고 있다. 또한, 무역파트너의 수입수요 급감 등으로 무역관계를 통한 생산과 투자의 감소가 본격화되면서 수입실적 및 외국인직접투자(FDI) 유입실적의 변동성이 커지면서 우리나라의 EUEM-4에 대한 무역거래의 적정성을 검토할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서 살펴본 코로나위기의 EUEM-4에 대한 경제적 영향분석을 통해 나타난 시사점을 요약하면, 거시경제상황 변화에 대한 즉각적이고 실효적인 대응방안, 효과적인 경제정책에 연계되는 경제 분석의 정합성 제고 등이 요구되며, 코로나위기 이후에도 스태그플레이션에 따른 경기침체가 우려되는 상황에서 수출과 투자가 연계되는 전략적 추진, 무역에 따른 리스크 관리 등 체계적인 진출 전략이 필요한 상황이다.

Abstract

Global economies have faced the largest crises severely after Global Financial Crisis due to lockdown measures against economic and social activity arising from the coronavirus pandemic since 2020, and in particular geopolitical risks in the EU emerging markets adjacent to Ukraine have increased after Russia invaded Ukraine February 2022. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze economic impact of the EU major emerging markets through the macroeconomic situations of the markets due to the COVID-19 Crisis and suggest its implications. In the perspectives of major precedent literatures, a variety of study on the economic impact of the COVID-19 Cirsis have been analyzed about economic growth, income inequality and unemployment, and input-output network and trade flows. However, this paper studies focusing on the perspectives of growth, inflation, trade and investment which can influence directly to external transaction of Korean exports toward the EU major emerging markets including Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary classified by the criteria of economic development and domestic demand market amongst the Central and Eastern Europe. As a result of the analysis of the macroeconomic situations toward the EU major emerging markets (EUEM-4) after the COVID-19 Crisis (2020-2021), the overall economies of the EU major emerging markets have deteriorated into severe recessions due to the coronavirus pandemic, and consumer price has impressed cost-push inflation resulting from the disruption of supply chains and rising prices of energy and input material, which is afraid of acting downside risk of economic growth. In addition, appropriateness of trade transactions has to be considered, since the imports and FDI inflows into the EUEM-4 have fluctuated rapidly in accordance with the conspicuous contraction of production and investment linked the relations with trade partners. Regarding the implications based on the economic impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis toward the EUEM-4, it is highly suggested that effective counterplan has to be compatible eventually with macroeconomic situations, enhanced and sophisticated consistency of economic analysis related to realized policy, and systematic strategy for export and investment on the sustainable economic development.

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