韓國經濟의 産業構造變化에 대한 要因分析: 脫工業化 論議를 中心으로
Deindustrialization and the Structural Change of Korean Manufacturing Industry
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본 논문은 최근 한국경제가 경험하고 있는 산업구조의 변화에 대한 현황을 파악하고 제조업의 고용 및 생산 비중에 영향을 미치는 요인을 실증적으로 분석한다. 통계자료에 의하면 우리나라는 제조업고용비중의 관점에서는 탈공업화가 90년대 초반부터 시작되었으나, 실질생산비중의 측면에서는 오히려 그 비중이 상승하고 있어 탈공업화가 시작되지 않고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 회귀분석 결과 제조업의 고용비중감소는 소득수준의 향상에 따른 수요구조의 변화와 서비스업과 제조업간의 노동생산성 격차 등 대내적인 요인이 주된 원인인 것으로 나타났으며, 최근에 올수록 소득수준에 따른 소비패턴의 변화보다는 부문간 생산성 격차 요인이 고용비중 감소에 더욱 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 일반적인 인식과는 달리 무역수지 및 개도국으로부터의 수입 증가 등 대외적 요인은 그 영향이 미미하였으며, 개발도상국으로부터의 수입 증가는 오히려 고용 및 생산의 비중 감소를 지연시키는 것으로 나타났다. 회귀분석 결과는 전반적으로 한국경제의 산업구조 변화가 경제발전에 따라 나타나는 자연스러운 산업구조조정 과정임을 보여주었으며, 대외적인 요인에 의한 제조업공동화 단계에는 이르지 않고 있음을 나타내었다.
Abstract
The Korean economy recently has experienced rapid growth of foreign direct investment and is undergoing structural changes in relation to the decreasing employment share of manufacturing industry. There is widespread concern regarding the ramifications of deindustrialization and possibility of industrial hollowing-out. This paper investigates the issues of deindustrialization in the Korean economy and discusses policy implications based on the analysis. The central goal of the study is to identify the main factors affecting the structural changes in the Korean economy. The statistical analysis shows that the Korean economy has experienced ‘deindustrialization’ in terms of manufacturing employment share since 1989, but not in terms of real output share. The real output share of manufacturing is still increasing and the contribution to the Korean economy has been expanded.The regression results show that the decrease of manufacturing employment share is mainly due to the relative productivity growth in manufacturing and the elevation of living standard. The analysis also shows that the trade balance in manufacturing significantly and positively affects both the employment share and real output share in manufacturing. Imports from developing country also showed a statistically significant positive relationship with the employment share, which is stark different from public discussions. Even if we couldn’t find evidences of industrial hollowing-out, we found that the declining speed of manufacturing employment share is a little bit faster than that of major developed countries. This implies that a structural unemployment problem can be an issue in the future unless we successfully create new growth engines or develop service industries to absorb the manufacturing labor surplus.
참고문헌 (14)
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