고령화와 소득불평등이 경제성장에 미치는 영향
The Effects of Aging and Income Inequality on Economic Growth
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본 연구에서는 고령인구비율(65세 이상), EHII 지니계수, 1인당 실질GDP 등의 연간 자료를 사용하여 고령화와 소득불평등이 지난 50년 동안 경제성장에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는가를 살펴보았다. 실증분석결과 전체 기간에 걸쳐 고령화와 소득불평등이 상승할수록 경제성장률은 떨어진다. 하지만 Qu and Perron(2007) 검정결과에 따라 전체 기간을 3기간으로 구분하는 경우 기간에 따라 소득불평등이 경제성장에 미치는 영향이 다르게 나타난다. 또한 시변적인(Time-Varying) VAR 모형을이용한 추가적인 실증분석결과 소득불평등 상승 충격에 대한 경제성장의 중위수반응이 역의 U자 형태가 아니라 U자나 W자의 형태를 보이고 있다. 한편 고령화충격에 대한 경제성장의 부정적인 반응은 기간구분에 관계없이 일정하다.
Abstract
The paper analyzes how aging and income inequality have affected economic growth over the last 50 years using annual data such as the ratio of elderly people 65 years old or older, the EHII Gini coefficient, and the real GDP per capita. According to the empirical analysis, the economic growth rate decreases as the aging and income inequality increase over the entire period. However, the results of the Qu and Perron (2007) test show that income inequality has a different effect on economic growth depending on the period, when dividing the entire period into three periods. Further empirical analysis using time-varying VAR models also shows that the median response of economic growth to positive shock of income inequality is in the form of U or W, not in the form of an inverse U. On the other hand, the negative response of economic growth to the aging shock is constant irrespective of the period.
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