통일시나리오 논의의 틀 : 북한경제의 이행･발전 방식 및 남북한의 국가결합 유형을 중심으로

Abstract

Despite the suggestions of various unification scenarios during the abundant discussions on Korean unification, there has not been any framework for discussion encompassing both the political and the economic aspects of the unification process. Building on the three major politico-economic challenges that will accompany unification (transition of the North Korean economy, economic convergence of the unified Korea, and the provisional state-form to support this transition and convergence), as well as the proposed possible responses to them, this paper seeks to provide a framework for interdisciplinary discussions of Korean unification, with a focus especially on its economic effects. By consolidating the proposed options for meeting the first two challenges, three prime unification scenarios are put forward. They are: the “one-system-one-economy” model, also referred to as the East-West Germany type, the “one-system-two-economies” model, analogous to the Hong Kong-China model, and finally the “two-systems-two-economies” model, designed in accordance with the Korean National Community Unification Formula. A “discussion framework” is then proposed, by juxtaposition of the different possible levels of economic integration against the different possible forms of political union. The options for economic integration between South and North Korea can be broken down into seven stages: general exchanges, deepened cooperation, a free trade agreement, free capital mobility, labor market integration, monetary union, and a complete single market. The choices for provisional political union between the two Koreas can meanwhile be divided into six types: a normalized relationship, China-Taiwan style relationship, establishment of a Special Administrative Region, a confederation, a federation, and a unitary state. This framework for discussion can graphically capture the idea of politico-economic integration proposed by most unification studies. A general typology of Korean unification scenarios can also be constituted based on the two criteria of level of economic integration and form of political union. Another noteworthy finding of this study is that there is a growing consensus among researchers on the need for a one-system-two-economies stage during the initial process of unification so as to reduce the unification costs, in relation to which the German unification experience comes immediately to mind.