최적통화지역이론의 내생성에 관한 연구 - 통화충격의 내생성을 중심으로 -
A Study on the Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria : Monetary Shock
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 논문은 EMU의 사례를 통해 기존 최적통화지역이론에 함의를 제시하고자 한다. 최적통화지역 이론에 비춰 통화통합을 연구한 대부분의 기존연구는 유럽경제통화동맹(EMU)이 최적통화지역으로 적절하지 못하다고 지적했다. 그러나 이들 연구는 EMU의 출범 이전 시기를 분석함으로써 통화동맹에 따른 경제적 변화를 인식하지 못했다. 따라서 본 논문은 이러한 기존연구의 한계를 극복하고, 현재 출범되어 운영되고 있는 EMU 체제를 대상으로 단일통화에 따른 최적통화지역의 내생성을 분석했다. 본 논문의 분석결과는 세 가지로 요약해 볼 수 있다. 첫째, EMS 기간보다 EMU 기간 회원국가간 경제성장률과 물가상승률의 상관관계가 더욱 밀접하게 변화되고 있음을 확인했다. 둘째, EMS 기간동안 상이한 통화충격을 조정하기 전 회원국가간 경제성장률과 물가상승률의 밀접성은 매우 낮지만 통화충격을 조정 후 상관관계는 높게 나타난다. 셋째, EMU 기간 동안 공동통화충격을 조정하기 전 회원국가간 상관관계는 높지만 통화충격을 조정 후 상관관계는 하락하는 현상이 나타난다. 이러한 분석결과는 통합 전보다 통합 이후 회원국가간 경제적 연관성이 증가하게 되고 점차 최적통화지역으로 변화해 가고 있다는 점을 나타낸다. 그리고 통합 이후 단일통화의 사용은 생산과 물가의 상관관계에 커다란 영향을 미치고 있으며, 향후 통합의 정도가 지속적으로 심화될수록 단일통화의 사용 자체가 회원국가간 생산과 물가를 좀더 동행적으로 유도함으로써 최적통화지역으로 발전하는데 기여할 것임을 의미한다.
Abstract
This paper re-examines the conventional wisdom that the EMU is less suitable for currency union. I investigate whether the present EMU has been affected by the earlier uncertain factors or it has been sustainable without any distinct asymmetric shocks by analyzing the present EMU. By the analysis of business cycles among member countries, this study analyzed to what extent the monetary factors affected the business cycles of member countries after the adjustment of the monetary shock. The followings can be concluded according to the analysis: the countries subjected to the idiosyncratic monetary shocks with Germany during EMS period show low correlation coefficients in the output growth rate and inflation rate before their adjustment of idiosyncratic monetary shocks, but the correlation coefficients between them rise after the adjustment of common monetary shocks. On the other hand, during EMU period, the correlation shows high coefficients before the adjustment of common monetary shocks, but it shows low coefficients after the adjustment. This explains that the monetary factors affect the high correlation coefficients in the member countries. Therefore, this analysis suggests that the business cycles between the EMU member countries become more symmetric due to the single currency as the level of the EMU development.
참고문헌 (31)
- "Geograph and Trade" (1991), Cambridge Mass; MIT Press
- "Monetary Policy and the U.S. states and regions: Some implications for European Monetary Union", pp.98~17 (1998)
- "Do States Respond Differently to Changes in Monetary Policy?" (1999)
- "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas and the Possibility of Forming a Yen Bloc in Asia", 9(4), pp.555~580 (1998)
- "Borders and Business Cycles", 55, pp.59~85 (2001)
- "Monetary Policy Under EMU Differences in the Transmission Mechanism?", WP, pp.01 (2002), 102,[DOI]
- "New Shocking Aspects of the European Monetary Union Convergence, Convergence and Convergence!" (2001)
- "Monetary Policies in the Presence of Asymmetries", 38(4), pp.593~612 (2000)
- "Lessons of the euro for dollarization Analytic and political economy perspectives", 23, pp.333~345 (2001)
- "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification", 3949, pp.1~39 (1992)
- "Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?" (1992), 1-19
- "One money or many? Analying the prospects for monetary unification in various parts of the world Princeton Studies in International Finance", pp.1~39 (1994)
- "EMU:Countries or regions? Lessions from the EMS experience", 41, pp.743~751 (1997)
- "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union Political Sources of an Economic Liability", 11(4), pp.23~42 (1997)
- "?EMU and International Conflict,?", pp.60~73 (1997), Foreign Affairs
- "The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First year" (2000)
- "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria; Intra-Industry Trade and EMU Enlargement", pp.1~22 (2001), Katholieke Universiteit, Centre for Transition Economics, Discussion Paper
- "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria", 108, pp.1009~1025 (1998)
- "How Symmetric are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?", WP, pp.02 (2002), 222[DOI]
- "Will a common European Monetary Policy have asymmetric effects", 95, pp.56~74 (1999)
- "Exchange rate regimes and economic convergence in the European Union", 29(1), pp.6~20 (2002)
- "Does single monetary policy have asymmetric real effects in EMU?", 25, pp.151~178 (2003)
- "Optimal currency area in Europe an alternative assessment", 10(33), pp.1~8 (2003)
- "Is the United States an optimal currency area?", 146, pp.2~5 (1999), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- "Is the EMU a viable common currency area? A VAR analysis of regional business cycles", 23, pp.2~18 (1999)
- "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area", 92, pp.1~35 (2001)
- "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area more evidence from VAR analysis", 91, pp.1~23 (2001)
- "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union What are the Differences?", 45, pp.1~25 (1998)
- "The common unresolved problem whit the EMS and EMU", 87(2), pp.224~227 (1997)
- "Monetary Shocks and Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria : Reconsidering the European Monetary Unification", pp.1~16 (2000)
- "The 'New' Theory of Optimum Currency Areas", pp.663~686 (1993)