제주지역 외국인 국제회의 참가자 수요예측에 따른음식업의 경제적 파급효과 분석
Forecasting demand for Jeju international convention participants and estimating its economic impact of the food service industry
0
조회
0
다운로드
8
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The number of international conference holding in Korea is rapidly increased. From 2000 to 2008, the number of holding international meeting is increased 292 to 634, 217%, also foreign participants are increased. As a result, Government and local governments are giving their best efforts to encourage it. For this reason, the effects to local economy by holding international meeting and participants demanding forecast are essentially needed for efficiency of building infrastructures and preparing holding international visitors. This point of view, this study aim to predict expenditure of participants and find out effects towards food service industry based on 2011 international visitors in Jeju. For demanding forecast, KTO annual report of 2000 to 2008 Jeju area the number of international meeting foreign participants is used. Using this data, this study analyzed through the second regression model. Also it analyzed Production, Income, Employment, Added value, Multiplier effects of indirect tax based on 2007 Bank of Korea regional input-output table. The result of demanding forecast shows that 2011 Jeju area will have 29,000 international comers for participating international meetings and through this, This study predict food service industry would gain 8,459 millions sales profit. The result of the regional I-O model indicate that food service industry would generate 10,968 million Won of output impact, 2,036 million Won of income impact, 5,599 million Won of value-added impact, 1,138 million Won of tax, and 287 full-time jobs throughout direct and in direct effects.
Abstract
The number of international conference holding in Korea is rapidly increased. From 2000 to 2008, the number of holding international meeting is increased 292 to 634, 217%, also foreign participants are increased. As a result, Government and local governments are giving their best efforts to encourage it. For this reason, the effects to local economy by holding international meeting and participants demanding forecast are essentially needed for efficiency of building infrastructures and preparing holding international visitors. This point of view, this study aim to predict expenditure of participants and find out effects towards food service industry based on 2011 international visitors in Jeju. For demanding forecast, KTO annual report of 2000 to 2008 Jeju area the number of international meeting foreign participants is used. Using this data, this study analyzed through the second regression model. Also it analyzed Production, Income, Employment, Added value, Multiplier effects of indirect tax based on 2007 Bank of Korea regional input-output table. The result of demanding forecast shows that 2011 Jeju area will have 29,000 international comers for participating international meetings and through this, This study predict food service industry would gain 8,459 millions sales profit. The result of the regional I-O model indicate that food service industry would generate 10,968 million Won of output impact, 2,036 million Won of income impact, 5,599 million Won of value-added impact, 1,138 million Won of tax, and 287 full-time jobs throughout direct and in direct effects.
참고문헌 (31)
- 김철원, "국제회의산업의 경제적 파급효과 분석에 관한 연구", 무역전시연구, 1(1), pp.83~104 (2006)
- 김한주, "산업연관모델을 이용한 음식업의 경제적 파급효과 분석", 외식경영연구, 12(1), pp.111~126 (2009), 한국외식경영학회
- 모수원, "환율의 변동성과 한국인의 해외관광수요", 관광학연구, 27(4), pp.147~162 (2004), 한국관광학회
- ETS를 이용한 시계열자료분석 I, "SAS", pp.2005, 박유성
- 박유성, "시계열자료분석" (2000), 자유아카데미
- 박흥식, "구조적모형을 통한 방한 외래관광객의 수요예측", 관광학연구, 24(2), pp.135~155 (2000)
- 송근석, "관광수요 예측모형의 선정 시 표본후 예측의 중요성", 관광연구, 22(2), pp.95~116 (2007), 대한관광경영학회
- 송근석, "관광수요 예측모형의 정확성 비교", 관광연구저널, 20(2), pp.351~369 (2006), 한국관광연구학회
- 송근석, "관광수요 예측모형의 정확성 비교", 관광연구저널, 20(2), pp.351~369 (2006), 한국관광연구학회
- 관광산업의 지역경제 기여분석, "이강욱", 한국문화관광정책연구원, ~ (2003)
- 이덕기, "예측방법의 이해" (1999), SPSS아카데미
- 이충기, "관광응용경제학" (2003), 일신사
- 이충기, "일본인 관광객의 방한 수요결정요인에 관한연구: 계량경제모형을 중심으로", 관광·레저연구, 18(4), pp.7~25 (2006), 한국관광.레저학회
- 이충기, "최적 시계열 수요예측 모델선정에 관한 연구", 관광학연구, 31(6), pp.289~311 (2007), 한국관광학회
- 이충기, "BIE Expo 방문객 수요예측: 계량기법과 질적기법의 적용", 관광·레저연구, 19(3), pp.263~281 (2007), 한국관광.레저학회
- 정동빈, "SPSS를 활용한 시계열 자료와 단순화 분석" (2001), (주)데이타솔루션
- 허향진, "시계열모형을 이용한 제주지역 관광객 수요예측: 개입모형을 중심으로", 호텔경영학연구, 25(1), pp.27~41 (2001)
- Archer, B. H., "Forecasting demand: Quantitative and Intuitive Techniques", International Journal Tourism Management, 1(1), pp.5~12 (1980)
- Archer, B., "Demand Forecasting and Estimation in Travel, Tourism, and Hospitality Research; A Handbook for Managers and Researcher", pp.105~114 (1994), Wiley
- Chu, F. L., "Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Cubic Polynomial Approach", Tourism Management, 25(2), pp.209~218 (2004)
- Dhamarahne, G. S., "Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Barbados", Annals of Tourism Research, 22(4), pp.804~818 (1995)
- Isard, W., "Interregional and Regional Input-output analysis: a model of Space-Economy", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 33(1), pp.318~328 (1951)
- Lewis, D., "Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods" (1982), Butterworth
- Lim, C., "Time Series Forecasts of International Travel Demands for Australia", Tourism Management, 23(4), pp.389~396 (2002)
- Makridakis, S., "The Art and Science of Forecasting: An Assessment and Future Directions", International Journal of Forecasting, 2(1), pp.15~39 (1986)
- Makridais, S., "Forecasting Methods and Appiications(3rd ed.)" (1998), Wiley
- Song, H., "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models", International Journal of Forecasting, 19(1), pp.123~141 (2003)
- van Doorn, J. W. M., "Tourism Forecasting and The Policy Maker", Tourism Management, 5(1), pp.24~29 (1984)
- Var, T., "Tourism Forecasting: State-of-the-Art Techniques. In VNR's Encyclopedia of Hospitality and Tourism", pp.679~696 (1993), Van Nostrand Reinhold
- Witt, S. F., "Economereic Models for Forcasting International Tourism Demand", Journal of Travel Research, 25(3), pp.23~30 (1987)
- Witt, S. F., "Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism" (1992), San Diego Academic Press Inc.