21세기 미국의 재균형전략과 북중러 삼각관계에 대한 고찰
A Review on America’s Rebalancing Strategy and Its Impact on Trilateral Relationship between China, Russia, and North Korea in the 21st Century.
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이 글은 미국의 전략구상인 “아태 전략적 재균형” 및 “아시아 회귀” 정책이 동북아 주요 국가인 중국·러시아·북한에 미치는 영향을 주로 분석하고 있다. 21세기에 접어들면서 미국은 중국과 러시아를 견제하기 위하여 두 가지 글로벌 대 전략인 나토의 동진확대 전략과 아태 재균형 전략 구상을 추진해왔다. 이 전략구상에 맞서기 위해 중러 양국은 긴밀히 협조 및 연대를 강화해오고 있다. 특히 중국은 미국의 아태 전략적 재균형 정책이 의심의 여지없이 동 지역 내 중국의 부상을 차단하려는 봉쇄 정책들 가운데 하나라고 판단하고 있다. 따라서 이런 상황 하에서 시진핑 시대 중국은 미국과의 충돌을 피할 뿐만 아니라 미국과의 건실한 관계를 유지하기 위해 소위‘신형대국관계’를 모색하고 있다. 나아가 한편으로 중국과 러시아는 양국관계 뿐만 아니라 다른 한편으로 한층 더 굳건해지고 있는 해양세력인 한·미·일 삼각군사협력을 견제하기 위해 대륙세력으로서의 북·중·러 삼각관계를 강화할 필요성이 높아졌다. 하지만 실제로는 재균형 전략을 이용한 미국의 아태지역 내 개입으로 말미암아 필자가 보기에 북·중·러 삼자 사이에 굳건하고도 안정적인 삼각 안보 틀을 수립하고 공고화할 수 있을지는 불투명해 보인다. 그러므로 이들 삼각관계는 일시적이며 불안정한 것으로 보이며, 그들이 기대하는 것보다 아직 레짐으로서 안정적으로 제도화되지 못할 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
This paper asserts that America’s strategic initiatives, “Rebalancing” towards the Asia-Pacific region and “Pivot to Asia”, has had a great influence on major states in Northeast Asia such as China, Russia, and North Korea. In order to contain China and Russia, the United States has proceeded to carry out two global strategies, namely NATO’s Enlargement in the East and Rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region throughout the 21st Century. In response to the these strategic initiatives, China and Russia have not only built a strong solidarity, built also continuously reinforced overall cooperation in the region. Especially, the Chinese Government undoubtedly regards this rebalancing strategy as a kind of containment policy to block China from emerging in the Asia-Pacific. Under this circumstance, China has consistently attempted not only to avoid conflict between the US and China , but also to establish and manage so called a “New Type of Great Power relations” among them under the Xijinping’s Regime. In addition, on the one hand, it is urgent for the China and Russia to strengthen a bilateral relationship between two nations. On the other hand, China, Russia, and North Korea as Continental power have been demanded to build a trilateral relationship in order to deter tighter trilateral military cooperations between the U.S. Japan, and South Korea as Sea power. However because of America’s intervention on this region using rebalancing strategy, it would be unpromising that China, Russia, and North Korea could establish and consolidate a firm and stable trilateral architecture of security. So as far as I see, these trilateral relations seem to be transient and unstable. They would be no more able to build a regime as a stable institution than an expectation.
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