북러관계의 전략적 함의와 북중러 삼각관계와의 전략적 상호작용－동맹, 균형, 그리고 위협인식－
The Strategic Implications of the Russo-North Korean Relations in Strategic Interaction with Trilateral Relations between Russia, China and North Korea－Alignment, Balancing and Perception of Threat－
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러시아와 북한의 전략적 관계는 ‘위협균형(balanceofthreat)’과 ‘비대칭성(asymmetricity)’으로 요약할 수 있다.동맹이론에 입각하여 러시아와 북한의 전략적 제휴(strategicalignment)의 이유는 ‘외부의 위협에 대한 균형(balancing againstexternalthreats)’으로 해석할 수 있다.‘위협균형’은 일반적으로 ‘군사적수단’과 ‘정치적 수단’을 활용한 ‘균형’으로 이루어지는데 ‘북-러 전략제휴’는후자의 측면이 강하다. 러시아와 북한의 전략적 제휴관계는,강대국과 약소국 간의 동맹(제휴)의 일반적인 속성을 반영하여,‘비대칭성’을 특징으로 한다.안보 딜레마를 해결하는데 있어서 약소국인 북한은 ‘외부적 원천’에 대한 의존성이 높다.비대칭 동맹은 ‘힘과 이해관계의 비대칭성’을 특징으로 한다.이로 인해 강대국과 약소국사이에서는 일반적으로 ‘안보와 자율성의 교환거래(secury-autonomytrade-off)’가 발생한다.‘원조’는 자동적으로 ‘동맹’의 이유가 되지 못하며 ‘원조’를 통해강대국이 동맹 상대국(약소국)에 행사할 수 있는 영향력 또한 제한적이다. 탈냉전기,러시아와 북한의 전략적 제휴는 ‘위협균형’과 ‘묶어두기/결박(tethering)’이라는 행위유형을 통해 설명할 수 있다.위협인식의 수준과 해결방법에는 차이가 있으나,러시아와 북한은 ‘미국요인’을 ‘외부위협’으로 인식하여상호 전략적 제휴를 통한 ‘균형’을 시도하고 있다고 볼 수 있다.
Abstract
The strategic relation between Russia and North Korea is summarized as‘balance of threat’ and ‘asymmetricity’. According to the alliance theory, thereason for the strategic relation between Russia and North Korea can beinterpreted as pursuing ‘balance against external threats’. In general, ‘balance ofthreat’ consists of the balance which utilizes the ‘military resource’ and the‘political resource’, and the ‘Russo-North Korean strategic alignment’ is closer tothe latter. The Russo-North Korean strategic alignment reflects a general attributionbetween the Great Power and the Small Power, and is characterized as the‘asymmetricity’. One of the features of the asymmetric alignment is theasymmetricity between the capacity and interests. In the post-cold war era, the Russo-North Korean strategic alignment canbe explained as the behavior pattern of the ‘balance of threat’ and ‘tethering’. Despite their difference at the level of the perception of threat and itsresolutions, it is arguable that Russia and North Korea recognised the US factoras the external threat and pursued balancing by mutual strategic alignment.
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