북한 핵무장에 대비한 군사적 측면에서의 대응전략

Abstract

The present study is aimed to present a plan to improve the military strategy of South Korean military in preparation for a new type of North Korea's provocation against South Korea as North Korea has been armed with nuclear weapons. Under the consecutive sanction and pressure of the international community, North Korean Kim Jeong-un regime has proceeded nuclear tests 5 times to downsize and standardize nuclear weapons, and increase the holdings of nuclear materials, which is needed to advance the capacity of nuclear weapons, diversifying the deliveries of nuclear weapons such as various types of missiles, SLBM test launching, and nuclear submarine. In addition, the regime declared last year to be a nuclear power at the 7th Party Congress and adopted “Policy Line Paralleling Nuclear Force and Economy" as permanent strategy and took its status of nuclear power as fact. When analyzing the series of these moves by North Korea, it is expected that Kim Jeong-un regime will never give up nuclear weapons and rather reinforce nuclear military strategy to take advantage of more actively as means of provocation against South Korea. Accordingly, we have to develop a military strategy in preparation for a new type of North Korea's provocation against South Korea as North Korea has been armed with nuclear weapons. This study found out that it is highly likely that the North Korean regime led by Kim Jeong-un starts a limited war, focusing on strong local provocation with conventional weaponry while maintaining the Balance of terror of mutually assured destruction (MAD) by arming itself with nuclear weapons. Therefore, plans to develop our military strategy can be presented as follows, First, it is 'Offensive Rejective Deterrence Strategy' that aims to remove nuclear weapons and nullify the use in advance in the peacetime and when North Korean's use of nuclear weapon is detected. Second, it is 'The Strategy of Quickly Securing Strategic Goal' in preparation for limited wars of local provocation that Kim Jeong-un regime, holding nuclear weapons, is expected to attempt to accomplish its political and military goals.