양극화, 대침체, 그리고 미국우선주의 무역정치 : 트럼프 행정부 무역정책의 국내정치적 설명
Polarization, the Great Recession, and the Trade Politics of America First: Domestic Sources of the Trump Administration's Trade Policy
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이 글은 트럼프 행정부 출범 이후 본격적으로 전개되고 있는 미국우선주의 무역정책에 대한 국내정치적 설명을 제시한다. 여기서 살펴볼 국내정치적 요인은 두 가지이다. 하나는 1980년대부터 나타나기 시작하여 1990년대 이후 뚜렷한 미국정치의 현상으로 자리 잡은 양극화(polarization)이다. 다른 하나는 2007~2009년 대침체(Great Recession)로서 이 사태는 보호주의 무역정치가 작동할 수 있는 직접적 계기를 제공했다. 미국우선주의 무역정책이 전후 무역자유화 기조에서 벗어난 이유를 미국경제에서의 무역비중, 무역적자 규모, 실업률 등의 경제적 지표들에서 찾기는 어렵다. 트럼프의 미국우선주의 무역정책은 미국정치사에서 간헐적으로 나타났던 포퓰리즘의 대외경제정책 범주에 속한다. 그러나 단순한 역사적 유추로는 이 새로운 보호주의의 국내적 기원을 이해하기 어렵다. 1980년대 이후 꾸준히 진행되어온 양극화의 핵심은 금융탈규제 및 탈산업경제, 세계화 및 경제개방에 대한 민주·공화 양당의 신자유주의 합의(neoliberal consensus)에 있다. 대침체는 양극화에 가려져 있었던 이 정책이념수렴에 대한 도전이 정치적으로 동원될 수 있게 만든 촉진요인이었다.
Abstract
This essay explores the domestic sources of ‘America First’ trade policy pursued by the Trump administration. Two domestic factors are taken into account to improve our understanding of the recent U.S. trade policy. One is the polarization of American politics that has become an enduring feature since the 1980s, while the other is the Great Recession of 2007~2009. Trump as a populist politician has mobilized the social foundation of America First trade politics against the backdrop of ever-increasing polarization and inequality. The current U.S. stance toward international commerce reflects the popular challenge to the ‘neoliberal consensus’ within the Washington political class. The Great Recession has catalyzed the backlash against the long-standing policies in favor of globalization and economic openness pursued by both Democratic and Republican administrations since the 1980s.
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