비관측경제(NOE)의 원인 식별과 국민계정의 완결성 제고
Identifying the Causes of the Non-Observed Economy and Enhancing the Exhaustiveness in National Accounts
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국민계정 통계가 모든 생산활동을 포괄적으로 반영하고 있는지를 의미하는 완결성(exhaustiveness)은 국민계정 통계의 품질 평가를 위한 핵심 요소로 통계의 정확성 및 신뢰성과도 밀접한 관련이 있다. 그러나 기초데이터 수집 한계 등에 따른 비관측경제(non-obsereved economy: NOE)의 존재로 국민계정 통계가 모든 생산활동을 완전히 포착하지 못하는 것이 현실이다. 본 연구에서는 학계의 연구와 국제통계기구에서 논의되어온 비관측경제(NOE)의 측정 방법론을 정리하고, 국민계정 편제와 관련된 NOE 측정 사례로 Eurostat의 ‘완결성 표형식 접근법’ (Tabular Approach to Exhaustiveness, TAE)을 소개하였다. 아울러, NOE 측정 측면에서 최근 우리나라 경제총조사(Economic Census)의 행정데이터활용도 제고에 관한 내용을 고찰하였다. 국민계정 통계 추계에 행정데이터 기반 경제총조사를 활용하는 경우 통계적 비관측 축소를 중심으로 한 NOE의 측정 정도 개선이 기대되며, 이에 따라 산출액과 부가가치의 증가(베이스업)가 예상되었다. 다만, 2020년 기준 경제총조사에서 추가된 사업체들의 특성을 살펴본 결과, 주로 규모가 영세한 기업이 추가 포착되었으며 이들의 부가가치율은 기존 사업체에 비해 낮은 수준인 것으로 추정되었다.
Abstract
Exhaustiveness, which means that national accounts statistics comprehensively reflect all production activities, is a key element in the quality assessment of national accounts statistics and is closely related to the accuracy and reliability of the statistics. However, due to the existence of the non-observed economy (NOE), caused by limitations in the collection of basic data, it is a reality that national accounts statistics do not fully capture all production activities. This study summarized the methodologies for measuring the NOE that have been discussed in academic research and by international statistical organizations, and introduced Eurostat's Tabular Approach to Exhaustiveness (TAE) as a case study related to the measurement of the NOE in the compilation of national accounts. In addition, the recent enhancement in the utilization of administrative data in Korea's Economic Census was examined from the perspective of measuring the NOE. When an administrative data-based economic census is used in the estimation of national account statistics, it is expected to improve the measurement of the NOE, primarily by reducing statistical non-observation. Consequently, an increase (a base-up) in output and value-added is anticipated. However, upon examining the characteristics of the newly captured establishments in the 2020 Economic Census, it was found that mainly small-scale enterprises were additionally identified, and their value-added ratio was estimated to be lower than that of existing establishments.
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