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온두라스 해외 이주 배출요인으로서 치안 문제의 이중적 현실: 주관적 치안 인식의 악화와 미성년자에 대한 위협

Dual reality of public security as a push factor for emigration in Honduras: Deteriorating subjective perceptions of public security and significant threat to minors

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라틴아메리카연구소 (Institute of Latin American Studies)|2024.08|이베로아메리카 연구 (Revista Asiática de Estudios Iberoamericanos)|제35권 제2호|pp. 73-106|DOI 10.22927/snuibe.2024.35.2.73

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미성년자push factorHonduras온두라스emigration치안public securityminors해외 이주배출요인
주제분류스페인어와문학

초록

본 논문은 해외 이주의 배출요인으로서 온두라스의 치안 불안을 재조명하고 두 현상 간에 작용하는 주요 메커니즘을 설명하고자 한다. 본 논문은 다음과 같은 연구 문제를 제기한다. 2010년대 온두라스의 해외 이주 추이와 치안 상황의 변화는 어떠한 상관관계를 가지고 있는가? 두 변수 간의 관계를 설명하는 주요한 인과적 메커니즘은 무엇인가? 이에 본 논문은 온두라스 해외 이주에 대한 실태 확인과 동시에, 치안에 대한 객관적 지수와 주관적 인식의 괴리를 파악함으로써 온두라스 치안의 이중적 현실을 조명한다. 나아가 치안의 이중적 현실의 기저에서 해외 이주를 강화하는 메커니즘으로 미성년자에 미치는 치안 불안의 악영향을 주목한다. 본 논문의 분석 시기는 극단적인 국경의 차단 및 경계 강화로 공식적, 비공식적 해외 이주가 모두 비정상적으로 통제된 COVID-19 발생 직전인 2019년까지로 제한한다. 본 논문은 2010년대 온두라스의 해외 이주가 객관적 치안 지수의 변화에 모순된 주관적 치안 인식에 의해 견인되었다고 주장한다. 치안 악화라는 통념과 달리 온두라스의 객관적 치안 지수는 전반적인 개선을 나타낸 반면, 치안에 대한 주관적 인식은 악화일로를 거듭했고 해외 이주라는 이주 행위자의 결정에 더욱 실질적인 요인으로 작용했다는 것이다. 본 논문은 또한 온두라스 해외 이주를 심화시킨 치안에 대한 주관적 인식 악화의 기저에 미성년자에 대한 사회적 폭력, 특히 조직범죄 집단에 의한 직간접적인 폭력이 주요 메커니즘으로 크게 작용하였다고 주장한다.

Abstract

This paper examines Honduran unstable public security as a source of emigration and attempts to explain the main mechanism between the two phenomena. This paper raises the following research questions. What is the relationship between emigration trend and public security conditions in Honduras in the 2010s? What is the main causal mechanism behind such relationship between the two variables? To answer the questions, this paper verifies the actual trend of emigration in Honduras and sheds light on the dual reality of Honduran public security by identifying the gap between the objective indicators and the subjective perceptions of public security. Furthermore, it pays attention to the negative effects of unstable public security on minors as the mechanism to strengthen emigration under the dual reality of public security. The analysis of this paper is limited up to the year of 2019, just before the outbreak of COVID-19, when both formal and informal international migrations were abnormally restricted due to extreme border closure and surveillance. This paper argues that Honduran emigration in the 2010s was driven by the subjective perceptions of public security, which are contradictory to the changes of objective security indicators. Unlike the common belief in deteriorating public security, the objective indicators of public security in Honduras showed an overall improvement. In contrast, the subjective perceptions of public security continued to worsen and functioned as the more practical factor for emigration decision. This paper also argues that social violence against minors, especially direct and indirect violence by organized crime groups, served as the major mechanism underlying the worsening subjective perceptions of public security that intensified Honduran emigration.

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