우리나라 가계부채위기의 재평가 - 포스트케인지언 관점에서 (민스키의 금융불안정성 가설을 바탕으로)

Abstract

This paper tries to analyze the crisis of Korean household debt based on the post-Keynsian theoretical model. It argues, by examining the structural character of the crisis of Korean household debt, that household as well as corporate finance can be analyzed based on the Minsky financial instability hypothesis and that there exists a crisis-bearing mechanism with economic cycle within household finance. It also argues that the crisis of Korean household debt has developed under the working of that crisis-bearing mechanism. In addition it contends based on that analysis that the policy to deal with the crisis must be sought based the structural characteristic of household finance. A preemptive policy to hold in check the operation of crisis-bearing mechanis mechanism should be fundamental to prevent household finance from moving from the hedge-unit toward the speculative-unit phase of financial cycle. Missed an opportunity of the preemptive policy option, the Korean household finance has already entered into the phase of Ponzi-unit phase of financial cycle and stands on the brink of debt deflation and financial crisis. The government policy adopted currently is nothing but the one to prevent a financial crisis from breaking out on the short-term basis. A policy desired for crisis resolution should be more fundamental, the one to improve household financial structure to handle the level of employment, the distribution of income, and an increase in household income, together with the short-term one to prevent a financial crisis from breaking out.