분위회귀분석을 통한 가계부채가 가계소비에 미치는 효과 연구
The Effects of Household Debt on Household Consumption Through Quantile Regression Analysis
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초록
본 연구는 한국노동연구원(KLI)의 한국노동패널조사(KLIPS)를 이용하여, 가계부채 결정요인을 추정하고, 가계부채가 가계소비에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 실증분석방법으로 최소제곱(Ordinary Least Square)을 사용하였으며, 가계부채와 가계소비를 분위별로 분석하고자 분위회귀분석(Quantile Regression)을 추가적으로 실시하였다. 국내 가계부채와 가계소비에 관한 기존 문헌들과는 달리 본 연구는 가계부채 결정요인과 가계소비 결정요인 분석에서 분위에 따른 분위회귀분석을 실시하여 상․하위 조건부 분위에 따른 효과를 추정하였다. 분석결과, 가계소득의 증가와 실물자산의 확대는 가계부채를 확대하고, 더 나아가 가계소비를 증진시킨다. 또한, 가계부채의 증가는 차입으로 인한 소비확대를 유도할 가능성이 있으며, 가계 부채상환율의 증가는 가계의 재무건전성으로 인해 가계소비에 대해 긍정적인 효과가 있음을 확인하였다. 결론적으로 우리나라의 가계소비에 대한 가계부채의 전반적인 효과가 부정적으로 나타나지 않는 것으로 볼 때, 금융시장의 유동성 제약으로 인한 가계부채의 감소가 오히려 가계소비를 축소시킬 가능성이 있다고 판단된다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to estimate determinants of household debts and analyze the effects of household debts on household consumption with the use of Korean Labor and Income Panel Study of Korea Labor Institute. The analysis methods used in this study were Ordinary Least Square in order for estimation, Quantile Regression was additionally applied to perform quantile analysis on household debts and household consumption. Unlike previous literatures of domestic household debts and household consumption, this study focused on household debts to analyze the determinants of household debts and the effects of household debts on household consumption, and thereby tried to suggest comprehensive analysis. In addition, quantile regression analysis was conducted to analyze household debts and household consumption by quantile, and thereby to estimate the effects according to the upper and lower conditional quantile. According to the analysis, increased household incomes and expanded real assets led into the expansion of household debts, and furthermore into the promotion of household consumption. Also, increased household debts induced consumption expansion by loans, and increased debt-repayment rate caused financial soundness of households, which positively influenced household consumption. In conclusion, the overall effects of household debts on household consumption in Korea were positive. Therefore, this study drew the policy suggestion that the household debts reduced by liquidity restriction could shrink household consumption.
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