실업경험이 가계소비에 미치는 장기효과 분석
The Long-Term Effect of Unemployment Experience on Household Consumption
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우리나라의 가계소비는 1997년 외환위기, 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 등 큰 거시경제 충격을 거치면서 비교적 크게 둔화된 후 이전 증가세를 회복하지 못하고 있다. 이러한 배경하에 본고에서는 상흔 소비(scarred consumption)가 우리나라에서도 나타나는지 여부를 미시 패널자료를 사용하여 실증분석해 보았다. 분석결과 과거 실업경험은 가계소비에 통계적으로 유의하게 음(-)의 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 이는 1997년 외환위기 이후의 충격이 실업경험을 통해 장기적으로 우리나라의 가계소비에 부정적인 영향을 미쳤음을 의미한다. 이와 같은 결론은 우리나라에서 거시경제 충격 이후 장기적인 소비부진 가능성에 대비할 필요성이 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
Household consumption in Korea has not recovered from the previous increase after slowing down relatively significantly through major macroeconomic shocks such as the 1997 currency crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. Against this background, this paper empirically analyzed whether scar consumption appears in Korea using micro-panel data. The finding is that the past unemployment experience had a statistically significant negative effect on household consumption. These results imply that there is a need to prepare for the possibility of a long-term sluggish consumption after the macroeconomic shock.
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