한국을 포함한 보험선진국의 보험수요 결정요인 분석
The Determinants of Insurance Demand in Selected Developed Countries Including Korea
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본 연구는 보험선진국과 한국의 보험수요 결정요인을 각각 패널 모형과 OLS 모형을 사용하여 분석한 다음, 이들 분석결과를 이용하여 한국과 보험선진국 간 보험수요 결정요인의 상이점을 고찰하였다. 생명보험산업의 경우 보험선진국은 기대 인플레이션, 실질이자율, 정치적 권리, 금융시장 발달 정도, 보험가치 등의 변수들이 보험수요에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 한국은 소득수준, 정치적 권리, 노년층 비율, 금융시장 발달 정도 등의 변수가 보험수요 결정에 중요한 역할을 하는 것으로 분석되었다. 반면 손해보험산업의 경우 보험선진국은 소득수준, 실질이자율, 정치적 권리, 도시화 정도, 보험가치 등이 보험수요 결정에 중요한 변수로 작용하였으며, 한국은 소득수준, 기대 인플레이션, 실질이자율, 금융시장 발달 정도 등이 보험수요에 유의적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 보험선진국에 있어 생명보험산업과 손해보험산업의 가장 큰 차이점은 소득수준은 손해보험 수요에만, 기대 인플레이션은 생명보험 수요에만 영향을 미친다는 분석결과에서 찾을 수 있다. 한편 보험선진국과 한국은 기대 인플레이션, 실질이자율 등 경제적 변수가 보험수요에 미치는 영향에서 큰 차이점을 보이고 있는데, 이는 한국의 시계열 데이터가 최근 국내 금융시장의 환경변화를 반영할 만큼 충분히 축적되지 못하였기 때문인 것으로 분석된다. 향후 한국의 보험산업도 선진국 패턴을 따라갈 가능성이 높으므로 본 연구의 분석결과를 잘 용한다면 국내 보험산업의 선진화를 앞당기는데 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 본다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the determinants of insurance demand for selected developed countries and Korea using Panel estimation methods or OLS methods. From the empirical results of the paper, we find some differences between the effects of the determinants in selected developed countries and those in korea. In the case of life insurance industry, demand for insurance depends on expected inflation rates, real interest rates, political rights, financial market development, and the price of insurance in developed countries, while it relies on permanent income, old population ratios, political rights, and financial market development in Korea. On the other hand, in the non-life insurance industry, demand for insurance is significantly related to permanent income, real interest rates, political rights, urbanization, and financial market development in developed countries, and it has much to do with permanent income, expected inflation rates, real interest rates, and financial market development in Korea. The biggest difference, in developed countries, between life insurance industry and non-life insurance industry arises from the empirical results that expected inflation rates affects only the demand for life insurance and permanent income influences only the demand for non-life insurance. We might attribute the discrepancy in the effects of economic factors such as expected inflation rates and rel interest rates between developed countries and Korea to the short time series of korean data.
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