보험업과 경제성장간의 인과관계
A Study on the Causality Between the Insurance Industry and Economic Growth
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초록
이 연구는 국민 1인당 GDP, 저축액, 금리, 물가상승률, 실업률 등 주요 경제변수들이 보험업에 서로 어떠한 영향을 주고, 또 어떤 관계를 맺고 있는지를 살펴봄으로써 보험업의 경제적 공헌도를 찾아보는 데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 선진 16개국을 대상으로 보험업과 경제변수간의 관계를 GMM(Generalized Method of Moments) 동태적 패널모형과 함께 Panel-VAR모형을 이용한 충격반응함수(Impulse response function)와 분산분해(Variance decomposition)를 통해 보험업과 경제성장간의 인과관계를 실증분석하였다. 분석기간은 1980년부터 2004년까지 25년간이다. 분석결과 보험업의 성장은 경제성장을 견인하는 역할을 하고 있고, 경제성장 역시 보험업 성장에 매우 긍정적인 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 보험업은 물가를 안정시키고 실업률을 떨어뜨리는 것으로 나타나 경제안정에도 기여함을 보였다.국문 색인어 : 보험업, 경제성장, 보험료, GDP, 저축액, 금리, 물가, 실업률
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to measure the insurance industry's economic contribution to the overall economy by analyzing the causality between major economic variables and insurance-related variables. I conducted empirical analyses using Generalized Method of Moments and Panel-VAR Model, with cross-sectional data from 16 advanced countries(with GDP per capita over $20,000) between 1980 and 2004. There are several important findings.First, the Impulse Response Function analysis shows that the development of a country's insurance industry serves to increase economic growth. Second, according to the variance decomposition results, the insurance industry plays an important role in determining major economic variables, such as GDP per capita. Third, economic development promotes the development of the insurance industry. When there is an impulse in the GDP variable, insurance premiums increase tremendously. The rate of increase is especially great in the life insurance sector compared to the non-life insurance sector. Fourth, the insurance industry helps stabilize prices. According to variance decomposition, the effect of insurance premiums on the forecast error variance of inflation is lower than that of savings. Fifth, the effects of real interest rates and inflation are greater in the life insurance sector than in the non-life insurance sector. This is due to the fact that the life insurance sector has longer maturity periods than the non-life insurance sector. The longer maturities naturally render the life insurance sector highly sensitive to interest and inflation rates. As seen in the above research findings, the insurance industry leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. It is also confirmed that the insurance industry contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy.
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