주택수요 감소가 거시경제에 미치는 영향: 중소기업 대출형태 변동을 중심으로
Quantifying Macroeconomic Impact of Housing Demand Shock in Korea
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초록
우리나라 중소기업의 부동산 담보대출에 대한 높은 의존도는 부동산 시장 변동에 대한 중소기업의 취약성을 시사한다. 본 연구는 가계의 직업선택(노동자/중소기업오너), 주택매매, 불완전 금융시장을 특징으로 하는 이질적 경제주체 모형(Heterogeneous agents model)을 제시하고 주택수요 감소로 인한 주택매매가격 하락이 중소기업 및 거시경제에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 분석한다. 모형실험에 따르면, 주택매매가격의 하락은 중소기업 담보대출상한을 낮추고 중소기업 최적 생산을 방해하여 생산 위축을 초래한다. 중소기업의 노동 수요 감소로 인한 임금 하락은 대기업 생산의 소폭 상승으로 이어지지만 그 상승폭은 중소기업 생산 하락폭을 하회하며 경제 전체의 총생산량은 하락한다.
Abstract
Korean small businesses’ heavy reliance on business loans collateralized by their real estate suggests the vulnerability of SMEs to housing market fluctuations. To quantify the impact of housing price changes in response to housing demand shocks on the small business sector and the aggregate economy, this paper presents a heterogenous-agents model characterized by households’ choices on housing (to buy or sell) and occupation (to be a worker or an entrepreneur) and an incomplete financial market. The model is calibrated to match salient features of the 2018 Korean economy. The model experiment reveals that a drop in housing price lowers the upper limit of collateralized loan for small businesses. It impedes their optimal production decisions and results in production contraction. The consequential decline in labor demand lowers wage, inducing a slight rise in the output of large firms. The amount of increase in the output of large firms; however, falls short of making up for the amount of decrease in the output of small businesses so that the overall GDP of the economy decreases.
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