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Competitive Diffusion of Nuclear and Nonnuclear Energy in Korea

박정훈|황인영
서울대학교행정대학원 (gspa(graduate school of public administration seoul national university))|2014.08|Journal of Policy Studies|제29권 제2호|pp. 1-20

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키워드

nuclear energyenergy diffusionLotka-Volterra
주제분류정책학

초록

This study explains the competitive diffusion of nuclear energy andnonnuclear energy, adopting the Lotka-Volterra model of nonlinear dynamics todo so. In this paper, the competitive relationship in the energy diffusion processis treated as a competitive ecosystem in which nuclear energy as an emergingspecies competes with existing nonnuclear energy. We analyze installed capacitydata of each energy source from 1978 to 2012. Using estimated Lotka-Volterramodels, we investigate what kind of competitive relationship obtained betweennuclear and nonnuclear power in the energy policies of every South Koreangovernment from 1982 to 2012. The result shows that mutualism has largelycharacterized energy diffusion in Korea. That is, nuclear energy and nonnuclearenergy stood in a win-win relationship to each other most of the time, promotingthe proliferation of each other in the diffusion process. Between 1988 and 1991,in 1997, and then again 2008, the relationship between the two was a predatorpreyone: nuclear energy as a predator inhibited the diffusion of nonnuclearenergy as a prey in the diffusion process. This result implies the path dependencyof the energy policy in Korea. Taking the current competitive environment asour cue, we forecast the future diffusion scenario using an equilibrium analysisand a numerical simulation. The forecast shows that the proportion of installednuclear capacity in 2030 will reach to 23.8% of total energy sources, which is about5% below the energy policy goal set by the Park Keun-hye government recently.

Abstract

This study explains the competitive diffusion of nuclear energy andnonnuclear energy, adopting the Lotka-Volterra model of nonlinear dynamics todo so. In this paper, the competitive relationship in the energy diffusion processis treated as a competitive ecosystem in which nuclear energy as an emergingspecies competes with existing nonnuclear energy. We analyze installed capacitydata of each energy source from 1978 to 2012. Using estimated Lotka-Volterramodels, we investigate what kind of competitive relationship obtained betweennuclear and nonnuclear power in the energy policies of every South Koreangovernment from 1982 to 2012. The result shows that mutualism has largelycharacterized energy diffusion in Korea. That is, nuclear energy and nonnuclearenergy stood in a win-win relationship to each other most of the time, promotingthe proliferation of each other in the diffusion process. Between 1988 and 1991,in 1997, and then again 2008, the relationship between the two was a predatorpreyone: nuclear energy as a predator inhibited the diffusion of nonnuclearenergy as a prey in the diffusion process. This result implies the path dependencyof the energy policy in Korea. Taking the current competitive environment asour cue, we forecast the future diffusion scenario using an equilibrium analysisand a numerical simulation. The forecast shows that the proportion of installednuclear capacity in 2030 will reach to 23.8% of total energy sources, which is about5% below the energy policy goal set by the Park Keun-hye government recently.

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