자본-기술 보완성과 경제성장
Capital Skill Complementarity and Economic Growth of Korea
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한국 경제는 과거에 비해 현저히 낮은 경제성장을 보이고 있다. 이러한 현상이 일시적 불황인지 또는 장기적으로 저성장 기조에 들어선 것인지를 구별하는 일은 거시 경제 전망 및 정책 결정에 중요한 정보를 제공한다. 본 연구에서는 과거 40년간 한국 경제의 성장 과정을 자본 기술 보완성이 추가된 신고전학파 성장 모형을 통해 파악해 보고자 한다. 모형에 의하면 인적 자본 형성이 투자율 추이를 설명하는 데 매우 중요한 역할을 하며, 최근 성장의 패턴은 장기 균형으로의 수렴과 더불어 인적 자본 증가율의 둔화로 어느 정도 설명이 가능한 것으로 보이며, 지속적인 성장을 위해서는 인적 자본에 대한 질적인 향상이 중요한 것으로 추측된다.
Abstract
Arguably the rapid growth of Korean economy in the past decades was mostly achieved through the accumulation of capital. The growth path was also charac- terized by a prolonged time period of capital accumulation, in particular by a gradual increase of investment rates and decline afterwards. These characteristics of a transition-a hump-shape investment rate-appear to be at odds with the pred- ictions of the standard neoclassical growth model. We argue that the neoclassical model is consistent with the economic growth of Korea if one takes account of the fact that the accumulation rate of skilled labor is limited by demographics, and that capital and skilled labor are complementary in production.
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