우리나라 총요소생산성 증가율 하락추세에 대한 실증분석: 신고전학파, 내생적 또는 준내생적 성장모형?
An Empirical Evaluation on Downward Trend of TFP Growth in Korea: Neoclassical or Endogenous Growth Models?
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본 연구는 내생적 성장모형에 기초하여 1980년대부터 진행된 기술진보율 하락의 원인을 분석하였다. R&D 투입과 기술진보율의 관계에 대한 실증분석 결과는 준내생적 성장모형이 우리나라의 경험에 부합하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 우리나라의 기술진보율 하락추세는 R&D 투입에 대한 한계수확 체감과 더불어 R&D 투입의 증가세 둔화의 혼합된 효과에 기인한 것으로 해석될 수 있다. 인적자본의 역할에 대한 분석에서는 Benhabib and Spiegel(1994)의 기술파급 모형이 지지될 수 있다는 증거가 발견되었다. 이 같은 분석결과는 우리나라는 개발초기 단계에서는 인적자본 스톡의 증가가 선도기술 추격을 촉진하고 그에 따라 기술진보율도 상승하였으나, 1980년 들어 선도기술과 격차가 줄어들면서 기술추격효과는 점차 사라지고 기술진보율도 하락추세로 전환되었다는 것을 함축한다. 본 연구의 결과들은 기술진보율 제고를 위해서는 R&D 투입이나 인적자본의 양보다는 질의 강화에 정책적 주안점을 두어야한다는 것을 시사한다.
Abstract
Based on the framework of endogenous growth theory, this study evaluates long-run downward trend of TFP growth of Korea through 1980s to recent years. Empirical analysis on the relationship between R&D inputs and technology innovation shows that the experience of Korea is more consistent with semi-endogenous growth model R&D rather than fully-endogenous growth model. The downward trend of TFP growth can be interpred as an outcome of combined effects of decreasing return to R&D input on one hand and slowdown of R&D input growth on the other hand. The study also shows that technology spillover model of Benhabib and Spiegel (1994) is consistent with the experience of Korea. This implies that human capital accumation foster technology spillover in the early stage of economic development. However, the effect disappears as Korea economy approaches closer to the technology frontier and this contributes to the slowdown of the technology innovation.
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