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아시아-태평양 지역에서의 통화국제화 : 평가와 전망

Internationalizaton of Currencies in the Asia-Pacific Region: Evaluation and Prospect

백승관|오용협
한국경제의 분석패널 (Panel for Korean Economic Analysis)|2010.12|한국경제의 분석 (Journal of Korean Economic Analysis)|제16권 제3호|pp. 1-71

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참고문헌

키워드

통화국제화통화경쟁Currency CompetitionInternationalization of a Currency
주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구는 아시아-태평양지역의 화폐들이 국제통화 또는 지역통화가 되기 위한 선결조건들을 어느 정도 만족하고 있는가를 분석한다. 분석 결과를 보면, 첫째, 국제거래에서 사용되는 엔화 비중이 줄어드는 것은 일본의 금융시장에 규제가 존재하고 금융부문이 국제화되지 못했으며, 일본경제의 상대적 규모가 줄어드는 것과 밀접한 관계가 있었다. 둘째, 호주달러화가 국제적으로 사용될 수 있었던 것은 호주의 금융시장규모가 크고 잘 발달되었으며 금융규제가 철폐되었기 때문이다. 그러나 호주달러화가 제한적으로 사용되고 있는 이유는 호주의 경제규모가 작고, 호주달러화 가치의 변동성이 크며, 순 해외채무 규모가 지속적으로 증가하고 있기 때문이다. 셋째, 홍콩과 싱가포르의 금융부문이 국제통화국들만큼 국제화된다면 홍콩달러화와 싱가포르달러화는 스위스프랑화와 같이 국제통화로서의 역할을 할 잠재력을 가지고 있다. 넷째, 중국 위안화가 국제적으로 사용되기에는 시기상조라고 판단된다. 왜냐하면, 자본이동이 철저하게 통제되어 있고, 금융규제가 있고 금융시장들이 발달되지 못했으며, 정치위험도가 높기 때문이다. 다섯째, 원화의 국제화 여건도 초기 단계에 있다. 한국은 통화국제화의 지위에 영향을 주는 선결조건들의 대부분에서 기존의 국제통화국들, 홍콩 그리고 싱가포르에 뒤지고 있다. 단, 주식시장의 역동성과 효율성, 국가위험도와 외환보유고에서는 이들 나라들에 뒤지지 않았다. 마지막으로 인도 루피화의 국제화도 어려울 것으로 판단된다. 인도는 주식시장의 규모가 크다는 것을 제외하면 모든 면에서 주요 아태지역국들에 한참 뒤떨어져 있다. 한 가지 희망은 인도의 경제규모가 매우 빨리 커지고 있다는 것이다.

Abstract

After the global financial crisis of 2008, skepticism about the role of the US dollar as a key international currency has come to the fore again. The Chinese government officially announced the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi. Many other countries in the Asia-Pacific region are seeking the international use of their currencies. This paper examines the extent to which the currencies of twelve Asia-Pacific countries meet the preconditions for international and regional currency status. What we find is, first, that the decline in the Japanese yen share in official foreign exchange reserves and in denominating international debt securities is closely associated with the fact that Japan’s financial markets are regulated and not internationalized, and that the relative size of the Japanese economy is decreasing. Second, the international use of the Australian dollar owes much to its financial markets that are unregulated, large and well-developed. But its limited use is mainly due to its small economic size, volatile currency values and deteriorating its net external debtor position. Third, the Hong Kong dollar and the Singapore dollar have the potential to be an international and/or regional currency. Their only weaknesses are that economic sizes are small and debt securities market and banking sector are not relatively internationalized. Fourth, it is premature for the Chinese renminbi to be internationally used. The main reason is that capital is tightly controlled, financial markets are regulated and under- developed, and political risk is high. Fifth, the international use of the Korean won is in its primitive stages and may not be feasible for a while. Korea lags behind international currency countries, Hong Kong and Singapore in all determinants of international currency status except for the activity and efficiency of stock market, country risk and foreign reserve holdings. Finally, it may take a few decades for the international use of the Indian rupee. India’s only advantage is that stock market is large. Otherwise India is far behind major Asia-Pacific countries. One hope is that its economic sizes are rapidly increasing.

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