동아시아 시장통합과 가격수렴성
Market Integration and Price Convergence in East Asia
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본 논문은 동아시아의 시장통합을 살펴보기 위해 동아시아 각국 간 가격격차와 그 변동성의 시간에 따른 수렴 여부를 조사하고 그 결정요인을 실증분석한다. 본 연구에 따르면 동아시아는 외환위기 이후 시장통합이 가속화되고 있음에도 불구하고 가격격차가 축소되는 현상이 관찰되지 않으며 오히려 그 격차 및 변동성이 확대되는 것으로 분석된다. 이와 같은 가격격차의 비수렴성은 무엇보다도 외환위기 이후 심화된 역내 회원국 간 환율변동과 역내 소득격차에 기인한다고 분석된다. 따라서 동아시아시장통합을 심화하기 위해서는 EMS의 경우에서와 같이 역내 환율안정을 심화하거나 역내 국가 간 개발격차를 줄이기 위한 노력을 강화해야 할 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
This paper intends to measure the extent of the price level differences and volatilities among East Asian countries and examines whether some kinds of price-convergence could be ascertained in East Asia. This paper shows that compared with the EU, no noticeable trend of price-convergence among East Asian countries arises. Rather, there are increasing price level differences and volatilities. This paper shows that such price convergence failure can be explained in large part, by considerable exchange rate fluctuation among East Asian currencies and the wide income disparities among East Asian countries. These results suggest that the stability of intra-regional exchange stability together with the reduction of income gap is essential to further market integration in East Asia.
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