동아시아 경기동조화와 지역통화통합에 대한 시사점
Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union
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본 연구는 동아시아 주요 10개국을 대상으로 지역 내 통화통합을 위한 핵심적 선결조건인 경기동조화를 분석한다. 기존의 연구와는 다르게 블록 VAR모형을 도입하여 국가간 경제교류에 중요한 역할을 하는 변수들을 다수 포함하며 이들 간 상호작용을 명시적으로 반영한다. 실증분석 결과 각 국가 GDP의 변동은 주로 아시아GDP교란에 의해서 설명되었다. 또한 대부분 국가의 GDP는 가장 큰 영향력을보인 아시아 및 세계GDP교란에 대해서 유사한 반응을 보이며 경기변동 구간에서국가 간 높은 상관도를 보였다. 이러한 결과는 경기동조화 차원에서 동아시아 통화통합의 가능성을 긍정적으로 평가한다. 현재의 지역 내 경기동조화 수준은 유로화 출범이전의 유로존 국가 간 경기동조화 수준과 큰 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper empirically examines how closely East Asian economies movetogether in response to world, regional and country shocks, with a view togauging the feasibility of a regional currency union. Unlike previous studies,a block vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed to analyze a large setof macroeconomic variables for 10 major countries in the region. Resultssuggest that regional GDP shocks play a pivotal role in accounting for thevariation in individual countries’ GDP. The majority of the GDPs in East Asiaexhibit similar responses to the two major determinants of regional and worldGDP shocks. Overall, the evidence presents positively for consideration of aregional currency union in East Asia. For comparison, the paper alsoestimates the degree of business cycle synchronization across Eurozonecountries for the period prior to the launch of the euro in 1999.
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