신생 민주주의의 사회적 함정: 엘리트 계급의 부패와 사회적 신롸 구축의 실패
The Social Trap of New-Born Democracies: Corruption of the Elite and Failure to Build Social Trust
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본 연구는 신생 민주주의가 민주화 이행이후 실질적 민주주의(substantive democracy)로 진화해 가기 보다는 ‘엘리트 부패-제도신뢰의 하락-사회적 신뢰 하락-사적 공간으로의 후퇴-정치적 참여 하락’ 이라는 사회적 함정(social trap)에 갇혀 있다는 것을 경험적으로 설명하고자 하였다. 나아가 신생 민주주의 국가들 사이에 존재하는 사회적 함정의 수준도 경험적으로 가늠하여 보았다. 설명 모형과 이론적 가설들을 검증하기 위해, 세계가치조사가 3차례이상 실시된 17개 신생 민주주의와 17개 선진 민주주의를 선택하여 횡적(cross sectional) 및 종적 분석(Longitudinal analysis)을 실시하였다. 경험적 분석은 신생 민주주의의 사회적 함정은 엘리트 계급의 부패로부터 출발하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 국가제도에 대한 신뢰를 신장시키지 못하고 있는 가장 중요한 이유는 부패이고, 특히 서민들에 의한 생활 속의 부패가 민주주의 제도가 정착하면서 급속히 사라지고 있는 것에 비해 정치적 경제적 자원을 다량 소유하고 있는 엘리트들의 부패는 끈질긴 영속성을 가지고 있음도 확인하였다. 엘리트들의 부패는 신생 민주주의에서 관찰되고 있는 정부신뢰의 하락과 대인신뢰의 하락의 원인이 되고 있다. 그리고 국가제도에 대한 신뢰하락과 타인에 대한 믿음이 하락함에 따라 개인들은 공적 공간으로부터 사적 공간으로 후퇴하게 되고 엘리트 과두정이 정착되는 경향성도 발견하였다. 신생 민주주의에서 일반적으로 관찰되는 ‘정치적 관심의 하락’, ‘정치적 참여 축소’ 그리고 ‘사회적 참여의 축소’ 등은 신생 민주주의가 장기적으로 사회적 함정에 갇혀 있을 수 있다는 우려를 낳게 한다.
Abstract
This paper is an effort to explain why new-born democracies have failed to move on from procedural democracies to substantive democracies, but instead have become trapped in the vicious circle of rampant corruption, declining institutional confidence, eroding social trust, and shrinking public participation. Seventeen new-born and another seventeen established democracies were selected at random and were compared and contrasted through cross national and longitudinal analyses in order to determine which new-born democracies were trapped more than others. The empirical analyses showed that the social trap must be understood based on a comprehension of the nature of elite corruption in new-born democracies. Corruption among the elite is likely to be longer lasting than among other classes due to the political resources concentrated in the hands of the elite. It was found that elite corruption was the primary cause of declining institutional confidence and eroding social trust. These factors, in turn, influenced people to withdraw from the public sphere, so that there has been a growing tendency among people in new-born democracies to reduce their civic engagement, leaving public institutions monopolized in the hands of corrupt elites. This political dynamic explains why the oligarchies in new-born democracies are tenacious and why there seems little hope of resolving the social trap in the near future.
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