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미국 대통령 선거와 군사개입, 그 숨겨진 상관성

A Hidden Relationship Between U.S. Presidential Elections and Presidential Decisions to Use Force Abroad

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극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2011.12|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제27권 제4호|pp. 159-185|DOI 10.17331/kwp.2011.27.4.006

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키워드

선거외교정책Foreign PolicyElection무력사용의회대통령CongressUse of Force AbroadU.S. President
주제분류정치외교학

초록

제2차 세계대전 이후 미국 대통령의 무력사용을 국내적 요인을 통해 설명하려는 시도는 우회적 무력사용 가설과 제도주의 무력사용 가설로 크게 나눌 수 있다. 본 논문은 이 두 가지 기존 주장을 비판적으로 검토한 후, 이에 대한 대안적 설명으로 개입주의 대통령의 선거적 기원이라는 새로운 가설을 제시한다. 보다 구체적으로 본 논문은 압도적인 지지를 통해 당선된 전후의 미국 대통령들은 그렇지 않은 대통령에 비해 무력사용 결정과정에서 의회의 반대를 보다 효과적으로 차단할 수 있었음을 주장한다. 이를 위해 전후 미국 대통령이 외교와 안보 정책에서 누리는 구조적 이점을 살펴보고, 1945년부터 2000년까지의 분기별 자료를 바탕으로 미국 대통령의 무력사용 빈도와 대통령 선거에서의 득표율이 양의 상관관계를 가진다는 경험적 증거를 제시한다.

Abstract

Previous studies on domestic determinants of postwar U.S. presidents' use of force abroad have been divided into two hypotheses: a diversionary use of force hypothesis and an institutionalist explanation. Alternatively, I provide a new theory that explains an origin of interventionist presidents from postwar U.S. presidential elections. Specifically, I argue that postwar U.S. presidents who won elections by an overwhelming margin have employed military forces abroad than those who did not win elections by an overwhelming margin because of president's structural advantages over Congress in the foreign and security policy making. The findings from the quarterly use of major force data between 1945 and 2000 are in support of the claim that it is the size of electoral victory, not the size of the president's party nor the form of partisan government, that has a statistically significant association with the frequency to use major force abroad.

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