사회적 할인율을 고려한 국내육상풍력발전 단지의 LCOE 분석
Analysis of LCOE for Korean Onshore Wind Farm Considering Social Discount Rate
2
조회
0
다운로드
5
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
A study on estimation of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) was conducted for the Korean onshore wind farms. The LCOE was estimated on the basis of the actual wind farm data from Data Analysis, Retrieval Transfer system (DART) run by Financial Supervisory Service. Recently, social discount rate of Korea dropped from 5.5% to 4.5%, which was taken into account for this study. The onshore wind farms studied accounted for 42% of all the onshore wind farms of South Korea. Capital Expenditure (CapEx) and Operation Expenditure (OpEx) were calculated from the actual data, while Capacity Factors (CFs) were obtained from the wind farms of five provinces. Their distributions were estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation method, and then Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) was performed for estimating LCOE, Levelized Fixed Cost (LFC), and Levelized Variable Cost (LVC). As a result, the LCOEs at the two discount rates, 4.5 and 5.5%, were 142 and 152 $/MWh, respectively, which were lower than that of financially viable onshore wind project of Korea. The 1% drop of social discount rate was estimated to result in a 10 $/MWh decrease in LCOE and a 4 $/MWh in LFC, which can be an advantage for wind project investors.
Abstract
A study on estimation of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) was conducted for the Korean onshore wind farms. The LCOE was estimated on the basis of the actual wind farm data from Data Analysis, Retrieval Transfer system (DART) run by Financial Supervisory Service. Recently, social discount rate of Korea dropped from 5.5% to 4.5%, which was taken into account for this study. The onshore wind farms studied accounted for 42% of all the onshore wind farms of South Korea. Capital Expenditure (CapEx) and Operation Expenditure (OpEx) were calculated from the actual data, while Capacity Factors (CFs) were obtained from the wind farms of five provinces. Their distributions were estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation method, and then Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) was performed for estimating LCOE, Levelized Fixed Cost (LFC), and Levelized Variable Cost (LVC). As a result, the LCOEs at the two discount rates, 4.5 and 5.5%, were 142 and 152 $/MWh, respectively, which were lower than that of financially viable onshore wind project of Korea. The 1% drop of social discount rate was estimated to result in a 10 $/MWh decrease in LCOE and a 4 $/MWh in LFC, which can be an advantage for wind project investors.
참고문헌 (16)
- Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, "Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan", The 2nd Korea Policy Conference of Renewable Energy (2017)
- D. Hur, "An Economic Evaluation of Offshore Wind Resources", The 2012 Conference of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers, pp.150~152 (2012), The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
- 민창기, "국내 해상풍력발전단지의 경제성 분석", 전기학회논문지, 63(9), pp.1192~1198 (2014), 대한전기학회[DOI]
- "2018", ~
- 고경호, "신재생 에너지와 기존 발전기술과의 투자리스크 요인별 민감도 비교", 신재생에너지, 7(4), pp.10~17 (2011), 한국신·재생에너지학회
- 문성주, "풍력사업의 경제성 분석에 관한 연구 : 제주특별자치도의 건설중인 S, I 풍력단지의 사례를 중심으로", 산업경제연구, 24(6), pp.3695~3712 (2011), 한국산업경제학회
- IRENA, "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017", International Renewable Energy Agency, ~ (2018)
- 2016 cost of wind energy review, "Tyler, S.", National Renewable Energy Lab.(NREL), ~, pp.No. NREL (2017), TP-6A20-70363
- 2017 cost of wind energy review, "Tyler, S.", National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), ~, pp.No. NREL (2017), TP-6A20-72167
- Varro, L., "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity–2015Edition", ~ (2015)
- Nathaniel, H., "A Monte Carlo approach to integrating uncertainty into the levelized cost of electricity", The Electricity Journal, 29(3), pp.21~30 (2016)
- Jay, H., "Economic feasibility of commercial heat-to-power technologies suitable for use in district heating networks", Energy Procedia, 142, pp.1721~1727 (2017)
- Lee, K.Ko, K., "Analysis of LCOE for Korean Onshore Wind Farms using Monte Carlo Simulation", The 2018 Fall Conference of Korea Wind Energy Association, pp.27~30 (2018)
- "Financial Supervisory Service DART"[URL]
- "Korea Wind Energy Industry Association"[URL]
- A Study on Economic Viability of Wind and Solar Energy Considering Electrical Grid Stability, "So, J.", The Fundamental Research Report of Korea Energy Economics Institute, 14~22 (2014)