국내 해상풍력사업의 프로젝트 파이낸싱 조건에 따른 내부수익률 변동성 추정
Estimation of Variability in Internal Rate of Return for Korea Offshore Wind Projects with Financing Conditions
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초록
An investigation into the variation in revenue based on project financing conditions was conducted for 20 offshore wind projects in Korea permitted by the government. Capital Expenditures (CapExs) and Operational Expenditures (OpExs) for these projects were estimated using data from a government commission and a report by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Wind speed distribution estimates for Korean territorial waters were used to calculate the annual energy production (AEP), leading to the determination of the capacity factor (CF), assuming the installation of 18 reference 15 MW wind turbines from the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the 20 project sites. Next, financial assumptions were established to compute the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), considering interest rates of 4.5%, 5.5%, and 6.5%, loan periods of 12, 15, and 18 years, and debt levels of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90%. The results showed that equity IRR increased with a higher percent of debt, but the variability in IRR also grew, indicating higher financial risk. As the loan period lengthened, interest payments increased, leading to a reduction in taxes for the projects.
Abstract
An investigation into the variation in revenue based on project financing conditions was conducted for 20 offshore wind projects in Korea permitted by the government. Capital Expenditures (CapExs) and Operational Expenditures (OpExs) for these projects were estimated using data from a government commission and a report by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Wind speed distribution estimates for Korean territorial waters were used to calculate the annual energy production (AEP), leading to the determination of the capacity factor (CF), assuming the installation of 18 reference 15 MW wind turbines from the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the 20 project sites. Next, financial assumptions were established to compute the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), considering interest rates of 4.5%, 5.5%, and 6.5%, loan periods of 12, 15, and 18 years, and debt levels of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90%. The results showed that equity IRR increased with a higher percent of debt, but the variability in IRR also grew, indicating higher financial risk. As the loan period lengthened, interest payments increased, leading to a reduction in taxes for the projects.