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통화정책 투명성과 소득 및 인플레이션 행태: 1, 2차 모멘트를 중심으로

The Effects of Monetary Transparency on the First and the Second Moments of Inflation and Output Gap

유지현|김인배
한국경제통상학회 (The Korean Economic and Business Association)|2010.12|경제연구 (Journal of Economics Studies)|제28권 제4호|pp. 1-25

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참고문헌

키워드

투명성transparency변동성variability인플레이션inflation통화정책monetary policy산출물 갭output gap
주제분류경제학

초록

최근 Dincer and Eichengreen(2009)은 1998년부터 2006년까지 100개국 중앙은행에 대해 통화정책 투명성지수를 발표하였다. 본 논문은 이러한 광범위한 최신자료를 이용하여 통화정책 투명성이 인플레이션과 산출물 갭의 1, 2차 모멘트(평균 및 분산)에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 실증분석 결과, 투명성 제고가 인플레이션과 산출물 갭의 1, 2차 모멘트에 모두 긍정적인 영향을 미치게 됨을 발견하였다. 특히 경제발전 정도에 따라 투명성 효과가 다를 수 있음을 보였다는 점에서 개도국에 시사하는 바가 있다. 또한 실험적이지만 인플레이션 안정화에 대한 중앙은행의 성향에 따라 산출물 변동성의 상대적 안정화에도 투명성 효과가 차이가 있음을 검증하였다. 이는 통화정책에 있어서 인플레이션 변동성과 산출물 변동성 간의 상충관계를 투명성이 개선하게 됨을 보인 것으로서, 투명성 제고의 필요성을 다른 각도에서 조명하였다고 할 것이다.

Abstract

The purpose of present paper is to analyze the effects of transparency of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables such as inflation, output gap, and their variabilities using panel data. It uses Central Bank Transparency Index from Dincer and Eichengreen(2009), and formed a panel data on 92 countries from 1998 to 2006. We found that the improvement of transparency has positive effects on the inflation and output gap not only for their mean but also for their variability. In particular, the fact that the effect is generally greater in developing countries shows strong implication of the transparency of monetary policy on developing countries.

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