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노동시장정책의 확대는 복지국가 재정위기 해소에 유효한가? - 소극적･적극적 노동시장정책의 상호작용 효과

Is increasing of labor market policy expenditure effective policy tool to lessen the fiscal crisis in Welfare state? : The interaction between active and passive labor market policy

고혜진|조효진|배은총
한국사회정책학회 (Korean Association of Social Policy)|2017.12|한국사회정책 (Korea Social Policy Review)|제24권 제4호|pp. 185-222|DOI 10.17000/kspr.24.4.201712.185

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참고문헌

키워드

Interaction복지국가Welfare State재정건전성고용률Fiscal SoundnessEmployment Rate노동시장정책Labor Market Policy정책 상호작용

초록

본 연구는 복지국가의 재정건전성 담보에 노동시장정책 확충이 기여하는지를 실증적으로 규명하는 연구이다. 구체적인 분석은 20개 OECD 국가들의 1985년부터 2015년까지의 자료를 토대로 결합시계열 회귀분석과 Baron과 Kenny(1986)의 단계적 매개효과 검증을 통해 이루어졌으며, 분석의 강건성 확인을 위해 시스템 동적패널분석을 추가 수행하였다. 분석모형을 설정함에 있어 본 연구에서는 기존 연구에서 간과되어 온 두 측면, 노동시장정책 성과들 간의 선후 관계와 노동시장정책의 상호작용 효과를 반영하였다. 분석결과 노동시장정책은 복지국가의 부채 수준에 유의미한 영향을 미친다. 이때, 적극적 노동시장정책은 고용률을 매개하여 국가 부채 수준을 효과적으로 낮추는 것으로 나타난다. 반면에, 소극적 노동시장정책은 고용률 제고 기능을 하지 못하는 것은 물론 단기적으로는 국가 부채 부담을 늘리는 경향도 있다. 다만, 이것의 영향은 적극적 노동시장정책과 결부되면 부적 영향이 상쇄되는 것으로 나타난다. 즉, 단기적으로 노동시장정책 지출 확대로 재정수지가 악화될 수는 있지만, 장기적으로 이는 고용률 제고 효과를 통해 복지국가의 재정건전성을 담보하는 데 효과적인 역할을 수행할 수 있는 것으로 보인다.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of labor market policy on fiscal soundness of welfare state. The analysis was carried out using cross-sectional panel data regression analysis, stepwise mediating effect analysis and system GMM designed by Baron and Kenny(1986) based on the data from 1985 to 2015 for 20 OECD countries. In setting up the analysis model, this study considers the interaction effect between active and passive labor market policies as well as the time sequence of the outcomes which have been overlooked in the previous studies. The result shows that labor market policies have significant impacts on the fiscal condition of welfare states, which is measured as the levels of national debt in this study. Especially the expenditure on active labor market programs has a positive effect on improving the fiscal soundness of welfare states by promoting the employment rate. In contrast, passive labor market programs expenditure is negatively associated with employment rate growth and it exacerbates the burden of national debt in the short-term. However, when active labor market programs and passive labor market programs are combined, the negative impacts by passive pabor market policies on the fiscal soundness of welfare states are off-set. Therefore this study addresses that although the expansion of the labor market policies can be inimical to the fiscal soundness of welfare states in the short-term, in the long run, they can have effective roles in securing and promoting the fiscal soundness of the welfare states by promoting the employment rate.

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