복지-고용-경제의 선순환 분석
A Study on the Virtuous Cycle of Welfare-Employment-Economic Growth
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초록
본 연구는 복지-경제의 선순환 관계에서 고용을 중요한 매개로 하는 하나의 기제를 제시하고, OECD 36개국의 1990~2019년 패널데이터로 복지-고용-경제의 선순환을 실증한다. GDP 대비 사회지출 비율, 전일제 고용률의 차분값, 실질GDP 증가율 간의 관계를 패널 벡터자기회귀(PVAR) 모형으로 분석한 결과, 사회지출이 단기에는 고용률을 낮추지만 중장기에는 고용률을 증가시켰다. GDP 대비 총사회지출, 현금-현물 사회지출, 기능별 사회지출의 비율이 전일제 고용률에 미치는 영향을 패널교정표준오차(PCSE) 모형으로 분석한 결과 역시 총사회지출은 단기에 전일제 고용률에 부정적 영향을 가져오지만 중장기에는 긍정적인 효과를 보였다. 현금 사회지출과 보건(현물), 가족정책 현금, ALMP, 실업급여 영역이 단기에 부(-)의 효과를 보인 후 점차 영(0) 또는 정(+)의 효과로 전환되며, 현물 사회지출과 가족정책 현물지원은 중장기에 크고 지속적인 정(+)의 효과를 보였다. 현금 지원은 단기에 노동공급을 감소시키지만 점차 고용가능성 증가, 교육투자 증대, 소득 상실 위험 감소를 통한 더 좋은 일자리로의 이동 등의 경로를 통해 중장기 고용을 증대, 현물 지원은 인적투자 유인제고, 돌봄인력 수요 증대를 통해 지속적인 고용 증대를 기대할 수 있다.
Abstract
This study proposes a mechanism that emphasizes employment as an important mediator in the virtuous cycle between welfare and the economy and empirically examines the virtuous cycle of welfare-employment-economic growth using panel data from 36 OECD countries (1990-2019). The analysis of the relationship between social expenditure (% of GDP), the increase in the full-time employment rate, and the growth rate of real GDP using the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model shows that social expenditure initially decreases the employment rate in the short term but increases it in the mid to long term. The analysis of the impact of total social expenditure, social expenditure by type (cash or in-kind expenditure), and social expenditure by function (% of GDP) on the full-time employment rate using the Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) model also shows that total social expenditure has a negative impact on the full-time employment rate in the short term but a positive effect in the mid to long term. Social expenditure in cash and expenditures on health (in-kind), family policy cash support, ALMP (Active Labor Market Policies), and unemployment benefits show a negative effect in the short term, gradually transitioning to a positive effect. In-kind social expenditure and in-kind family policy support show a significant and sustained positive effect in the mid to long term. Cash support decreases labor supply in the short term but increases employment in the mid to long term through pathways such as increased employability, educational investment, and reduced risk of income loss, leading to better job transitions. In-kind support can be expected to sustainably increase employment through enhanced incentives for human investment and increased demand for caregiving personnel.
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