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노동시장정책이 실업에 미치는 영향: 적극적 노동시장정책의 조절효과를 중심으로

The impact of labor market policies on unemployment: Focusing on the moderating role of Active Labor Market Policy (ALMP)

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사회과학연구소 (Institute of Social Sciences SOGANG UNIVERSITY)|2024.04|사회과학연구 (Journal of Social Science)|제50권 제1호|pp. 53-78|DOI 10.15820/khjss.2024.50.1.003

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참고문헌

키워드

실업패널 회귀분석panel data노동시장labor marketunemployment소득보장적극적 노동시장정책Active Labor Market Policy(ALMP)income maintenance
주제분류사회과학일반

초록

본 연구는 노동시장정책이 실업률에 미치는 영향을 OECD 국가를 대상으로 한 패널자료를 활용하여 실증적으로 분석하였다. 특히 노동시장정책의 적극적, 소극적 수단간 상호작용, 적극적 수단의 하위유형 간 상호작용에 초점을 두고 시스템 일반화적률법(system GMM)을 활용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과 소극적 노동시장정책 지출이 실업률을 높이는 효과가 확인되었고, 적극적 노동시장정책 지출은 실업률을 낮추는 효과가 있었으나 효과의 크기는 크지 않았다. 노동시장정책 유형 간 유의미한 상호작용이 확인되었는데, 적극적 지출 수준이 높을수록 소극적 지출이 실업률을 높이는 부정적 영향이 완화되었고, 특히 공공 고용서비스 지출은 소극적 지출의 부정적 효과를 상당부분 완화하고 직업훈련 등 다른 프로그램의 효과를 높이는 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 노동시장정책 유형간 상호보완성(complementarity)을 고려한 최적의 노동시장정책 설계가 필요함을 의미한 다. 이상의 분석결과를 바탕으로 몇 가지 이론적, 정책적 함의를 제시하였다.

Abstract

This study empirically analyzed the impact of labor market policies on unemployment rates using panel data for OECD countries. A special attention has been paid to how interactions between active and passive measures and those between sub-programs of active measures influence unemployment rates. Findings based on the system GMM approach confirmed consistent and negative effects of passive spending on unemployment rates. Spending on active labor market policies was found to lower unemployment rates, but effects were only marginally significant if not insignificant. Significant interactions between different types of labor market policies were also found with the higher the level of active labor market spending, the lessened the negative impact of passive spending on unemployment rates. These findings suggest that an optimal design for labor market policies is necessary considering complementarities between different types of labor market policies. Several theoretical and policy implications were further discussed.

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