러시아 하이브리드 전쟁의 이론과 실제
Russian Hybrid Warfare: Theory and Practice
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초록
본 논문의 연구주제는 국민투표라는 미명 하에 크림반도를 불법적으로 병합한 것으로 절정을 이룬, 2014년 러시아가 우크라이나를 상대로 벌인 하이브리드 전쟁이다. 우크라이나에서의 하이브리드 공격으로 드러난 가장 두드러진 수법(modus operandi)은 선전선동 기구, 무표식의 정체불명 군인들, 제파식 역정보 캠페인, 전쟁의 ‘문턱’에 이르지 않는 은밀행동, 주의분산(diversion), 사이버 공격, 자생적 분리주의 민병대 등의 활동에 대한 놀라운 수준의 조율이다. 하이브리드 전쟁에 대한 국내 문헌이 주로 이라크 전쟁, 아프간 전쟁 및 제2 레바논 전쟁에 초점을 맞춘 나머지 서구편향의 학술적 경향을 드러낸 점을 고려해 볼 때, 이 논문의 가장 중요한 목적들 중 하나는 국내 연구의 제한적 성과, 그리고 적어도 부분적으로 러시아의 관점을 반영한 방대한 문헌들 간의 괴리(gap)을 메우는 것이다. 상기 연구 목적과 일관성을 이루면서, 본 논문은 다른과 같은 질문을 제기할 것이다. 소위 ‘게라시모프 독트린’이 등장하게 된 배경은 무엇인가? 게라시모프 독트린은 이것의 출현에 지대한 영향을 미친 것으로 알려진 ‘색깔혁명’ 또는 ‘아랍의 봄’으로부터 어떤 교훈을 도출했으며, 이런 교훈이 독트린에 어떻게 반영되었는가? 비선형 전쟁의 원조 격인 게라시모프 독트린과 러시아의 차세대 전쟁과의 관계는 무엇인가? 이러한 전쟁의 이론이 우크라이나 위기사태에서 구체적으로 어떻게 적용되었나? 우크라이나를 대상으로 러시아가 구사한 ‘하이브리드전’의 가장 특징적인 측면은 무엇인가? 이것이 우리에게 주는 전략적 함의는 무엇인가?
Abstract
The subject-matter of this paper is the hybrid warfare undertaken by Russia against Ukraine in 2014, which culminated in the illegal annexation of Crimean Peninsula under the subterfuge of referendum. The single most salient aspect of the modus operandi shown in the hybrid offense was the remarkable coordination of activities by propaganda apparatus and unmarked unidentified soldiers, waves of disinformation campaigns, covert moves under the threshold of war, diversion, cyberassaults, homegrown separatist militia, to name a few. In view of a narrow scope of domestic literature with regard to the hybrid warfare, mainly focusing on Iraq War, Afghanistan War, and the 2nd Lebanon War, thereby revealing the western-biased academic tendency, one of the primary objectives of the paper is to bridge the gap between the limited performance of domestic studies and a vast amount of articles and papers that reflect at least in part the perspective from Russia. In keeping with the above mentioned research aim, this paper will pose the following questions. Against what background, considering that the ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ is regarded as the intellectual bedrock of Russian-version hybrid warfare, has the Doctrine come into the surface? What lessons has the Doctrine deduced from the ‘Color Revolution’ and ‘Arab Spring’, and how are they reflected in it? What are the relations between the Doctrine that envisioned the nonlinear warfare, the ‘Next Generation Warfare’ and the Doctrine per se? What were the most prominent features of Russian hybrid warfare in the context of Creame crisis? What are the strategic implications vis-à-vis the Nortk Korea that should be taken note of?
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