사이버 억지의 요건과 고려사항: 누구로부터, 무엇을, 어떻게 억지할 것인가?
Requirements and Considerations for Cyber Deterrence: From Whom, What, and How to Deter?
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초록
본 논문은 사이버 억지전략을 수립하기 위한 시론적 논의를 목적으로 한다. 사이버 공간은 이미 공격과 방어가 이루어지는 전장공간이지만 사이버 억지를 위한 이론적 논의는 크게 발전하지 못했다. 핵억지를 중심으로 발전해온 물리공간에서의 억지개념을 그대로 적용가능한 것인지, 사이버 공간만의 특수한 개념이 필요할 것인지에 대한 논쟁 수준을 벗어나 사이버 위협을 억지하기 위한 요건과 고려사항을 구체화할 필요가 있는 것이다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 사이버 공간의 전략적 특성, 공격과 방어의 수행방식, 사이버 억지의 개념과 발전과정, 사이버 억지의 대상, 내용, 방법 등에 대한 국내외의 다양한 논의를 다룬다. 누구로부터, 무엇을, 어떻게 억지할 것인가의 세 가지 질문을 제시하고, 각각으로부터 위협의 목적과 주체에 대한 “귀속성”, 레드라인과 시그날링의 “비례성”, 거부, 응징, 복원의 “효과성”을 사이버 억지의 요건과 고려사항으로 제시한다.
Abstract
1. This paper aims to provide a theoretical discussion for the establishment of a cyber deterrence strategy. There is a debate about whether the concept of deterrence developed in the physical domain, with a focus on nuclear strategy, can be directly applied to cyberspace or a unique concept specific to cyberspace is needed. Beyond this debate, there is a need to specify the requirements and considerations for deterring cyber threats. To achieve this, this study explores various discussions on the strategic characteristics of cyberspace, methods of conducting offense and defense, the concept and evolution of cyber deterrence, its targets, content, and methods. It presents three questions: "From whom, what, and how to deter?" and uses each of these questions to establish the requirements and considerations for cyber deterrence, which include "attribution" to the purpose and actor of the threat, "proportionality" with red lines and signaling, and the "effectiveness" of resistance, retribution, and resilience.
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