신고전적 현실주의 접근을 통한 펠로폰네소스 전쟁의 원인 고찰
A Study on the causes of Peloponnesian War based on the framework of neoclassical realis
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초록
본 논문의 목적은 펠로폰네소스 전쟁원인에 대한 투키디데스의 관점을 보다 정확히 해석하고, 그것이 오늘날 전쟁원인 연구 및 현실 정책구상에 던져주는 함의를 유추해 보는데 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 첫째, 펠로폰네소스전쟁의 원인에 대한 투키디데스의 관점이 오늘날 체계이론가들이 일반적으로 가정하는 것과 달리 구조적 요인을 전쟁의 불가피한(inevitable) 또는 결정적(deterministic)인 원인으로 단정하지 않고 있음을 보여주고자 한다. 즉 체계이론가들은 투키디데스의 관점을 단순화시킴으로서 구조적 요인과 함께 단위수준 요인들의 중요성을 동시에 고려하고 있는 투키디데스의 다면적 관점을 간과하는 경향이 있다는 것이다. 둘째, 이러한 맥락에서 투키디데스의 관점이 신고전적 현실주의(neoclassical realism)와 더욱 부합됨을 주장하며, 이러한 분석틀에 근거하여 펠로폰네소스전쟁의 발발원인을 재구성하고자 한다. 셋째, 체계수준에서 전쟁 가능성이 높더라도 이것이 전쟁을 불가피하게 만들지 않음을 보여주면서, 이것이 오늘날 전쟁의 원인을 연구하는 학자들에게 던지는 이론적 함의와 정책적 함의들을 제시하고자 한다.
Abstract
This study examines Thcydides' perspective on the causes of Peloponnesian War and its implications on war theory as well as practical policy initiatives. The main arguments are as following. First, Thcydides' perspective on the causes of the Peloponnesian War does not conclude that structural factors determine the inevitability of the war as system theorists assume. That is, system theorists have tended to make the mistake of hasty generalization by neglecting Thucydides' multidimensional perspective on the causes of the war. Second, Thucydides' perspective from this vein is so much closer to neoclassical realism that it is needed to be reinterpreted in line with neoclassical realists' framework. Lastly, this paper proposes some theoretical and political implications, which is based on the assumption that even high probability of war in system level does not necessarily mean the inevitability of war.
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