세계 무기시장에서의 무기거래 결정요인 : 수출국 및 수입국의 특징과 상호관계를 중심으로
Determinants of Arms Trade in the Global Arms Market : Focusing on the Characteristics and Interrelation of Exporting and Importing Countries
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본 연구는 무기거래에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 실증분석 하였다. 선행연구는 크게 세 가지로 구분된다. 첫째 경제적 요인에 초점을 둔 연구, 둘째 정치·군사·외교 등 비(非)경제적 요인에 초점을 둔 연구, 셋째 경제적·비경제적 요인을 복합적으로 고려한 연구들이 있다. 기존연구들은 요인들의 단편적인 특징에 초점을 둔 반면, 본 연구는 수출·입국의 특징과, 양국 간의 관계에 관심을 두었으며, 선택단계와 규모단계로 구분하여 독립적으로 분석하였다. 1991~2015년까지 무기거래 자료를 분석한 결과 선택단계에서는 정치성향 차이, 나토회원국 여부, 수입국 국방비지출, 수출·입국 국방과학기술수준 등이 영향을 주며, 규모단계에서는 수입국 국방비지출과 양국 간의 과거 무기거래 실적이 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 결론적으로 무기거래는 경제적·비경제적 요인들이 다양하게 영향을 미치나, 선택단계와 규모단계의 결정요인이 다르며, 거래국들의 특징과 관계에 따라 상이하게 작용하는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
This study empirically analyzed the factors affecting arms trade. There are three major prior researches. First, studies focused on economic factors; second, focused on non-economic factors such as politics, military, diplomacy; and third, took into consideration the economic and non-economic factors. While previous studies focused on the fragmentary characteristics of the factors, this study focused on the characteristics of countries, and the relationship between them. As a result of analysis of weapons trading data from 1991 to 2015, it is found that political difference, NATO member states, defense spending, and defense science and technology levels affect the selection stage. In the scale stage, weapon transaction volume between two countries in the past was significant. In conclusion, it is analyzed that arms trade has different effects on economic and non-economic factors, but the factors of selection stage and scale stage are different and affect differently according to characteristics and relationship of trading countries.
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