The International Political Economy of Foreign Trade policymaking : In the Case of US Export Control
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대외무역정책의 결정과정은 네 가지의 국제정치경제학적 측면 (국제정치적, 국제경제적, 국내정치적, 국내이익집단적 측면) 에서 설명될 수 있다. 이러한 네 가지 측면을 반영하여 본 연구는 미국 수출통제정책의 결정요인을 분석한다. 먼저 위의 네 가지 측면 및 관련 문헌들에 근거하여 가설을 설정하고 이는 회귀분석을 통해 검증된다. 독립변수는 각 국제정치경제학적 측면을 대변하는 변수들로 설정되었고 종속변수는 총수출승인 신청수에 대해 수출승인된 수의 비율로써 본 연구에서 처음으로 시도되었다. 분석결과 국내적 요인들 즉 국내정치 및 국내이익집단의 역할이 미국수출통제정책의 결정요인으로 작용하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 특히 국내정치를 대변하는 변수인 미국대통령의 이념과 국내이익집단의 적극적인 활동수준이 미국수출통제정책을 결정한다고 볼 수 있겠다.
Abstract
There are four theoretical perspectives to explain foreign trade policy tendencies: the international political view, the international economic view, the domestic approach (statism), and the domestic societal view. By reflecting these four theoretical perspectives, I analyze the determinants of US Export Administration policy-making. To do that, I develop a set of hypotheses to determine the relative importance of each factor. To test the hypotheses I use regression analysis, applying it to time series data. I generate a previously unused dependent variable, propensity to control exports measured by the ratio of number of approvals to the total number of applications for export license, with independent variables that represent each theoretical perspective. The findings indicate that the domestic statist and societal perspectives dominate the analysis. Specifically, partisan control of the Executive and aggressive participation of interest groups in trade policymaking process appear highly relevant for understanding US trade policy.
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