유럽경제통화동맹(EMU)의 확대 가능성에 관한 연구: 안정성 분석을 중심으로
A Study on the Possibility of the EMU Enlargement
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Abstract
The CEECs countries are expected to join the EU from 2004 and they expect to be admitted to the EMU. Thus, their sustainability of joining the EMU is considered by analyzing the correlation coefficients of the output growth rate and the inflation rate, the synchronization of shock and the similarity of shock adjustment dynamic among the CEECs countries and the EMU member countries. The followings can be concluded according to the analysis: all of the empirical tests show low correlation coefficients with Germany, compared with the member countries of the EMU in the analysis of the correlation coefficients of the output growth rate and the inflation rate, the synchronization of shock and the similarity of shock adjustment dynamic. However, the four Central and Eastern European countries are expected to join the EMU considering the results of the analyses. Also, these countries show similar results with the underdeveloped countries of the EMU and the candidate countries in some tests. Therefore, more efforts for the adjustment of the rate are highly required since their low correlation coefficients of most of these countries with Germany can be found in all of the tests.
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