한중 및 한일 무역에서 관세와 수송비용 효과에 대한 연구
A Study on the Effects of Tariff Rates and Transportation Costs on the Trade of Korea and China and Korea and Japan
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본 연구에서는 한중 및 한일간의 교역구조를 다양한 기법을 이용하여 분석하였다. GL 지수를 이용하여 한중 및 한일간의 산업내 무역 정도를 분석하였고, 양국간의 관세율 산포도가 산업내 무역에 미치는 영향을 부분로짓 회귀분석 모형을 이용하여 추정하였다. 그리고 한중 및 한일간의 수송비용 추이를 TEU당 컨테이너 운임을 이용하여 설명하였다. 또한 중력방정식을 이용하여 한중 및 한일간의 교역구조가 수송비용과 관세에 어떠한 영향을 받는지를 분석하였다. 분석결과에 의하면 수송비용과 관세가 모두 한중 및 한일간의 교역에 부(-)의 효과를 가지는 것으로 나타나서 Krugman et al.이 제시한 가설과 부합되고 있었다. 즉 관세인하와 수송비용의 감소로 대표되는 무역자유화와 기술진보가 한중 및 한일간의 교역량 증대에 기여하고 있는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the trade patterns of Korea and China and Korea and Japan and the effects of tariff rates and transportation costs on their trade. First, I analyze the intra-industry trade of Korea and China and Korea and Japan. In detail, I estimate the empirical relationship between the dispersion of tariff rates and the GL index for the proxy variable of the level of intra-industry trade, using Fractional Logit Regression. The estimation result shows that the increase in the dispersion of tariff rates lowers the level of intra-industry trade. I explain the transportation costs of their trade from 1998 to 2003 using freight fare per 20 feet container too.I also investigate the effects of the tariff rates and transportation costs on the volume of trade of Korea and China and Korea and Japan. I use the gravity equation and random effects estimation to find their relations. In order to estimate their relations, I use the panel data of the trade volume in Korea and China and Korea and Japan from 1998 to 2003. The analysis concludes that the tariff rates and transportation costs have negative effects on the volume of trade. This estimation result supports the hypothesis of Krugman et al. The trade liberalization and technological progress have made the volume of trade in Korea and China and Korea and Japan increase.
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