인도 도시화와 경제성장 간의 상관관계 분석
The Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Growth in India
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초록
본 연구는 1961～2016년 인도의 도시화율과 인구증가, 경제성장에 관한 시계열 자료를 이용하여 인도의 도시화 특징을 분석하고, 도시화와 경제성장 간에는 어떤 인과관계 및 상관관계가 있는지를 파악하기 위해 그랜저 인과관계 분석과 윌리암슨(Williamson) 가설 검정하였다. 세계 및 주요 국가들과의 비교를 통하여 인도의 도시화는 경제성장과 인구성장에 비해 느리게 진전되고 있으며, 특히 중국에 비해서는 매우 느리게 진전되고 있다는 점을 발견하였다. 실증 분석 결과, 인도의 도시화는 경제성장을 촉진하지만 경제성장이 도시화를 진전시키지는 않은 것으로 나타났다. 윌리암슨 가설 검정에서는 인도의 도시화는 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 미치지만, 역U자의 과정을 따라가지는 않는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 인도의 도시화가 초기단계여서 경제성장에 긍정적 영향을 주지만 경제발전 단계가 낮고 서비스업 중심으로 경제성장이 이루어지면서 경제성장이 아직 도시화를 유인하지 못하고 있기 때문인 것으로 해석된다. 따라서 인도의 도시화는 상당기간 경제성장에 매우 중요한 역할을 할 가능성이 높다. 따라서 본고는 인도의 스마트시티 사업 등의 도시화 사업이 보다 효율적으로 추진될 수 있도록 한국과 인도 양국이 협력을 보다 강화할 필요가 있다는 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of urbanization on economic growth in India. We compare the urbanization rate, population growth rate, and economic growth rate of India to average world, developed countries, developing countries, and China. Our results indicate that urbanization in India is relatively slow compared to economic and population growth. The Indian urbanization progress is even slower than China. However, until 2050, most of the population of India will move rural area to urban cities and the effect of urbanization in India on economic growth will be most important issues in the world. Using the Granger causality and Williamson hypothesis (1965), we test the relationship between urbanization and economic growth for India between 1961 and 2016. Results indicate that urbanization in India has promoted economic growth, but economic growth has failed to advance urbanization. Results from the Williamson hypothesis tests show that urbanization in India has a positive impact on economic growth but not on the inverse U-shape curve. These results could be interpreted as, India is in an early stage of urbanization. In India, the urbanization leads to economic growth rather than economic growth leads to urbanization. However, as the urbanization is in an early stage, it is no easy to determine when the optimal level of urbanization to maximize the economic growth will reach. It is interpreted that cause the economic growth does not lead to urbanization in India due to the low level of economic development and service leading economy. Other empirical studies indicate that high income countries may have a positive relationship between economic growth and urbanization rate, but low income countries may not. Thus, the economic growth will affect the urbanization in India when India will be a middle income country. Therefore, urbanization in India is likely to play an important role in the future economic growth because urbanization has a positive effect on economic growth. Thus, the Indian government’s urban development plans as such as smart city development are meaningful for the economic growth. Hence, Korea and India need to strengthen their cooperation to implement these plans efficiently
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