부동산 시장의 위기극복을 위한 금융정책의 역할 평가

Abstract

Since the IMF crisis, the structures of real estate economy have rapidly shifted toward capitalization, securitization and globalization. Due to these trends, indirect financial policies (i.e. interest control and loan regulation) rather than direct intervention means have been requested in real estate policy. However, the means of real estate policy could not cope with the sharp rise of real estate price and overcome crises in the real estate market because of insufficient preparation to cope with rapidly changing environments of real estate market. The aim of this paper is to analyze the roles of financial policy in overcoming the crises of the real estate market and to suggest the desirable measure of financial policies for the future. This paper analyses how the relations between real estate economy and capital and financial market have s changed since the IMF crisis and evaluates the meanings and limits of real estate policies to cope with the 2005 boom crisis and 2008 bust crisis. The results analyzing the impact of financial policy on the boom of real estate price in 2005 and the bust in 2008 are as follows: (a) the Roh Administration could not control the sharp rise in real estate price in 2005, because of its late use of financial policies like LTV and DTI control and poor management of loan control. Roh Goverment focused on the traditional direct means of real estate policies like increase of property taxes, redemption of development gains, expansion of housing supply and housing welfare.; (b) However, Lee Government chooses the deregulation, by which it expands expanding the housing supply and demand in real estate market for the prevention of collapse of real estate price. The deregulation policy for housing supply increase and the demand expansion policy through LTV and DTI deregulation could be expected to prevent collapse of real estate price, but in the end could also hamper the autonomous restructuring of the real estate market and self-regulating real estate price. This paper emphasizes that further real estate policiesy should be developed to reflect its the inter-relationship with financial policy. Furthermore, for the stabilization of real estate market, a good balanced combination of macro- and micro financial policies should be considered. Finally, this paper emphasizes the role of financial policy in preventng bankruptcy of households and insolvent real estate PF projects.