외생적 재정충격의 고용창출 효과

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the impacts of exogenous fiscal shocks on employment creation in Korea using quarterly data over the period from 1994 to the second quarter of 2015. It is used 3 different types of fiscal expenditures, such as total, current, and capital expenditures, and 6 types of employment status, such as total employments, independent businessmen, total wage workers, regular employees, daily workers, and temporary employees. In addition, this paper uses a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model incorporating the identifying restrictions of institutional information and quarterly dependence, suggested by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). The model is composed of 3 variables, such as fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure, and employment. The analysis proceeds in estimating the structural impulse response functions and the multiplier effects of fiscal variables. The summary of the empirical results is as follows. First, the impacts of fiscal revenue shocks on the changes of the total employments are relatively small and statistically insignificant. However, the fiscal revenue shocks are negative and statistically significant impacts on the changes of daily workers and temporary employees, while the fiscal revenue shocks positively create the employments of regular employees. Second, fiscal expenditure shocks on the changes of the total employments show positive and significant impacts, which are consistent with the existing literature, and persist 4 quarters (i.e., 1 year). Specifically, the shocks of fiscal expenditure have a larger impact on the changes of daily workers’ employments than those of independent businessmen. This implies that the increase of fiscal expenditure have a limitation on the creation of high-quality employments. Third, the impacts of fiscal expenditure shocks of the employment creation depend on the types of expenditures. Specifically, the increases of current expenditure create mainly the employments of daily workers, while the increases of capital expenditure contribute to the employment creation on regular and temporary employees. In summary, the regression results suggest that the employment creation effects of fiscal expenditure shocks are relatively small and those impacts are mainly revealed on the changes of daily workers’ employments. This implies that fiscal expenditure shocks induce the crowding-out effects on private economic activity.