오피스시장의 전환율 추정 및 유용성 검정

Abstract

This study estimates and tests the usefulness of the conversion rate between security deposits and monthly rent (hereinafter ‘CR’) of offices in Seoul from the first quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2014. CR is estimated by regression analysis using monthly rent as dependent variable and security deposit as explanatory variable. The interaction effects between security deposit and time dummy variables are added to estimate quarterly CRs. The usefulness of CR is tested by hedonic pricing model on the ‘the real rent’ which is the sum of monthly rent and the opportunity cost of security deposit. The opportunity cost is calculated by security deposit and CR. Estimation results show that CR decreased during the investigation period and had a value between the risk-free rate and the landlord’s asking CR. It was over 12% in 2009 but felt markedly to 4% in 2014. The goodness-of-fit and significance of the hedonic pricing model are high enough to prove the usefulness of CR. In particular, macroeconomic variables are much more significant in the hedonic pricing model using CR than in the case of a hedonic pricing model using the risk-free rate. This result suggests that it is better to use CR estimated by market data rather than the risk-free rate to calculate ‘the real rent’ and for analyzing the relationship between rent and macroeconomic conditions.