비관측요소모형을 통한 주택의 기대가격상승률 추정에 대한 연구 - 전월세전환율을 이용하여 -
Analysis of Expected Growth Rate in Housing Prices by Unobserved Component Model - Using Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate -
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Abstract
This study estimates the expected growth rate in housing prices to better understand movement in housing prices. The results show that expected growth rate follows AR (1), in addition to a random walk instead of moving in regular intervals. Also, this expected growth rate exhibits both stable and unstable components. The former could be used to estimate the expected price growth rate while the latter suggests that expectations for housing price growth move stochastically every time. In addition, changes in external conditions affecting the housing market at a particular point in time continue to affect the expected price growth rate. The expected growth rate in Korean housing prices continues its downward trend. If this low growth rate in expected prices persists and there is no significant change in the housing sales market, the housing rental market will expand. Therefore, the Korean government should create legal or institutional policies that can ensure a stable residential environment for tenants.
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