자본균형식을 이용한 기대 주택가격변화율의 추정
An Index for Expected House Price Change
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In this paper, I suggest an index to measure the changes in expected house price movement. If there are no-arbitrage opportunities, the changes in expected house price movement can be described by an index constructed from some observable information such as house price index and rental price indexes. The result shows followings; First, the nation-wide level of expected housing price change had gradually fallen from Jun. 2015 to Jan. 2017 except for some specific regions such as Sejong, Jeju, and Gangnam districts in Seoul. Second, after Jan. 2017, the average level of the expectation have been rising in Korea.
Abstract
In this paper, I suggest an index to measure the changes in expected house price movement. If there are no-arbitrage opportunities, the changes in expected house price movement can be described by an index constructed from some observable information such as house price index and rental price indexes. The result shows followings; First, the nation-wide level of expected housing price change had gradually fallen from Jun. 2015 to Jan. 2017 except for some specific regions such as Sejong, Jeju, and Gangnam districts in Seoul. Second, after Jan. 2017, the average level of the expectation have been rising in Korea.
참고문헌 (19)
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