전세가격과 매매가격 및 월세가격간의 관계에 관한 연구

Abstract

Chonsei is unique and indigenous rental arrangement in Korea. Tenants exchange housing service with depositing substantial amount of money up to 70% of house selling price for the period of contract, and don't pay monthly rent. For landlords, whatever proceeds from managing the deposit during the leasing period are considered as rental payments and they return the deposit at the end of contract.Since the Chonsei system is still the main stream of housing rental market in Korea, it is meaningful to study the mechanism of Chonsei pricing System from an academic aspect, as well as, important for stabilization of housing service market.We put Chonsei system as an intermediary market between housing ownership market and rental market and explore the relationships among housing price, Chonsei, and rental price. Data from January of 1986 to June of 2004 monthly indices of Chonsei, housing price and rental price were used. the nationwide total data were seasonally adjusted. Through Granger Causualty Test, Vector Auto Regression techniques, we found that housing price is the one triggering the Chonsei market and then the Chonsei market influences the monthly rental market. Consequently, the order of impact ishousing price first and Chonsei price is second and monthly rental price third. And the magnitude of changing housing price is the most influential one, and the influence of between Chonsei and monthly rental price is minimal.As a conclusion base upon this empirical study, Korean housing market is still driven by the housing price function and the housing stabilization policy should be more focused on housing price rather than rental market, especially in this staggering economy.