전문가의 부동산시장 예측에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석

Abstract

In Korea, the real estate experts’ prediction of real estate price change has been used as an important tool in forecasting real estate market change. Though some econometric models such as Vector Autoregressive Model are used basically, experts' interview played a significant role in prospecting the near future real estate market change. It is due to the fact that Korea has experienced frequent change of real estate policy and the econometric models have become useless sometimes. This paper explores the determinant factors affecting experts’ forecasting of future real estate market in order to improve the accuracy. The main results are as follows: First, the main factors affecting prediction are their view of regional housing market and their occupation. In other words, the experts who predict pessimistically on regional housing market tend to expect price decrease of national housing market. Second, the demographic characteristics including age and sex do not have significant effect on their prediction. The results imply that we have to consider regional market condition when we interpret the experts’ market forecasting.